Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Central Connecticut 38.1, Wagner 19.7 at Arute Field in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Central Connecticut wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.4 points and 57.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Wagner is 1-3, scoring 12 and allowing 42.8 points per game (-30.8 per game). Central Connecticut is 0-3, scoring 20 and allowing 52.3 points per game (-32.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wagner by 4 and Central Connecticut by 41 about 80% of the time.
Central Connecticut gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Central Connecticut by about 16.3.
Result: Wagner 14, Central Connecticut 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.6 points and the total by 1.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wagner / Central Connecticut) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Central Connecticut -14.5 → Central Connecticut -14 | 45.5 → 46.5 | +426 / -630 |
| DraftKings | Central Connecticut -14.5 → Central Connecticut -14 | 45.5 → 46.5 | +426 / -630 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Central Connecticut win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Central Connecticut -18.5 | 57.7 | 89% |
| Market consensus | Central Connecticut -14 | 46.5 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Central Connecticut -15 | 48.2 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Central Connecticut win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Central Connecticut -18.4 · market Central Connecticut -14 · difference +4.4 pts (Central Connecticut view)
- Total
- model 57.7 · market 46.5 · difference +11.2
Model margin is 4.4 pts more toward Central Connecticut than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wagner 19.7, Central Connecticut 38.1 | Central Connecticut 89%right winner | 12.6 | 1.3 |
| New formula | Wagner 19.0, Central Connecticut 38.1 | Central Connecticut 90%right winner | 11.9 | 1.9 |
Final: Wagner 14, Central Connecticut 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wagner vs Central Connecticut: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Wagner | Central Connecticut |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.4 | 26.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.5 | 22.9 |
| Yards per play | 4.36 | 5.64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.72 | 5.97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 199.1 | 140.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 95.1 | 241.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 189.2 | 156.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.8 | 226.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 0.62 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 2.15 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.58 | 1.23 |
| Stat | Wagner | Central Connecticut |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 38.9% | 41.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 42.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.1% | 11.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 14.2% |
| Havoc rate | 12.2% | 12.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.1% | 11.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.27 | 4.20 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5 | 67.7 |
| Stat | Wagner | Central Connecticut |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.13 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.32 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.0% | 38.5% |
| Passing success rate | 33.7% | 45.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.9% | 30.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 30.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.7% | 40.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6% | 40.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 49.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.7% | 63.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wagner schedule · Central Connecticut schedule · all Week 5 projections
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