Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wagner 24.8, Robert Morris 20.4 at Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Wagner wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.4 points and 45.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Robert Morris has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Wagner has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Robert Morris by 18 and Wagner by 27 about 80% of the time.
Wagner gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wagner by about 2.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Robert Morris 28, Wagner 7. Robert Morris won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 25.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Robert Morris / Wagner) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wagner -5.5 | 39.5 → 40.5 | +176 / -223 |
| DraftKings | Wagner -5.5 | 39.5 → 40.5 | +176 / -223 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wagner win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wagner -4.5 | 45.1 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Wagner -5.5 | 40.5 | 66% |
| Blended projection | Wagner -5.5 | 42.3 | 64% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wagner win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Wagner -4.4 · market Wagner -5.5 · difference -1.1 pts (Wagner view)
- Total
- model 45.1 · market 40.5 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward Robert Morris than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Robert Morris 20.4, Wagner 24.8 | Wagner 61%wrong winner | 25.4 | 10.1 |
| New formula | Robert Morris 18.8, Wagner 28.7 | Wagner 72%wrong winner | 30.9 | 12.5 |
Final: Robert Morris 28, Wagner 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Robert Morris vs Wagner: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Robert Morris | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.2 | 16.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9 | 24.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.05 | 4.36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.74 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 123.4 | 199.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 161.9 | 95.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.6 | 189.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 164.3 | 210.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.55 | 2.58 |
| Stat | Robert Morris | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 35.6% | 38.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 45.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 9.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.6% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.63 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.81 | 4.27 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.5 | 67.5 |
| Stat | Robert Morris | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.6% | 42.0% |
| Passing success rate | 33.4% | 33.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.1% | 25.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.1% | 34.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.9% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.0% | 64.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Robert Morris schedule · Wagner schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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