Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wagner 26.4, Southern Connecticut State 23.8 at Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Wagner wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 50.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Southern Connecticut State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Wagner is 0-1, scoring 7 and allowing 28 points per game (-21 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Connecticut State by 20 and Wagner by 25 about 80% of the time.
Wagner gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wagner by about 0.5.
Result: Southern Connecticut State 7, Wagner 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.4 points and the total by 12.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Connecticut State 23.8, Wagner 26.4 | Wagner 57%right winner | 21.4 | 12.1 |
| New formula | Southern Connecticut State 25.3, Wagner 34.0 | Wagner 69%right winner | 15.3 | 21.3 |
Final: Southern Connecticut State 7, Wagner 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern Connecticut State vs Wagner: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southern Connecticut State | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.0 | 16.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 70.0 | 24.5 |
| Yards per play | 4.43 | 4.36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 15.52 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.0 | 199.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 225.0 | 95.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 608.0 | 189.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 168.0 | 210.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.00 | 2.58 |
| Stat | Southern Connecticut State | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 36.8% | 38.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.5% | 45.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 9.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.9% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.27 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 80.0 | 67.5 |
| Stat | Southern Connecticut State | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.20 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 22.9% | 42.0% |
| Passing success rate | 36.0% | 33.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.8% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.9% | 25.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.5% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.4% | 34.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0% | 37.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 64.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Connecticut State schedule · Wagner schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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