Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected California 48, Wagner 7.4 at California Memorial Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: California wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 40.6 points and 55.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Wagner is 1-2, scoring 13.7 and allowing 40.7 points per game (-27 per game). California is 1-1, scoring 22.5 and allowing 31.5 points per game (-9 per game).
Wagner plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why California's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between California by 18 and California by 63 about 80% of the time.
California gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour California by about 38.5. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Wagner 7, California 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.4 points and the total by 0.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wagner / California) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | California -58 | 65.25 | — / — |
| DraftKings | California -58.5 | 65.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | California -57.5 | 65 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | California win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | California -40.5 | 55.4 | 100% |
| Market consensus | California -58 | 65.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | California -55.5 | 64.3 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- California win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model California -40.6 · market California -58 · difference -17.4 pts (California view)
- Total
- model 55.4 · market 65.25 · difference -9.9
Model margin is 17.4 pts more toward Wagner than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wagner 7.4, California 48.0 | California 100%right winner | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| New formula | Wagner 6.4, California 46.2 | California 99%right winner | 2.2 | 3.4 |
Final: Wagner 7, California 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wagner vs California: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Wagner | California |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 13.7 | 22.5#106 |
| Points allowed per game | 40.7 | 31.5#120 |
| Yards per play | 3.61 | 4.65#128 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.22 | 6.75#124 |
| Rushing yards per game | 99.7 | 105.5#130 |
| Net passing yards per game | 140.0 | 236.5#64 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.7 | 203.0#119 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.0 | 263.0#118 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33 | 1.50#113 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 2.00#9 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 2.50#41 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 1.50#68 |
| Stat | Wagner | California |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.20 | -0.09#126 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.19 | +0.13#120 |
| Success rate | 29.0% | 33.3%#133 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.3% | 42.0%#94 |
| Explosive play rate | 5.1% | 8.8%#124 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.4% | 15.2%#129 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3% | 14.5%#64 |
| Havoc allowed | 18.7% | 15.0%#106 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.81 | 3.89#92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.79 | 3.79#68 |
| Average starting field position | opp 26 | own 26#118 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 17 | own 36#138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3 | 73.5#19 |
| Stat | Wagner | California |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.33 | -0.07#115 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.11#120 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.34#135 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.33 | -0.02#53 |
| Rushing success rate | 22.2% | 32.8%#126 |
| Passing success rate | 33.3% | 33.7%#121 |
| Run stuff rate | 28.8% | 25.0%#132 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.1% | 23.6%#118 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.0% | 27.1%#54 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.5% | 45.5%#58 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9% | 46.4%#115 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 6.4% | 66.7%#55 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.9% | 50.0%#39 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wagner schedule · California schedule · all Week 3 projections
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