Matchup analysis
Our model projects James Madison 34, UConn 25 at Pratt & Whitney Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: James Madison wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.3 points and 59.2 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
James Madison is 7-1 against the 128th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.4 and allowing 18.3 points per game (+23.1 per game). UConn is 4-3 against the 132nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+11.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: James Madison's strong offense (32nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.4 points against an average defense) against UConn's below-average defense (96th). James Madison's middle-of-the-pack defense (53rd) should limit UConn's middle-of-the-pack offense (73rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between James Madison by 32 and UConn by 13 about 80% of the time.
UConn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. James Madison is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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James Madison vs UConn: stat comparison
| Stat | James Madison | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.4#5 | 35.6#30 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.3#25 | 23.9#67 |
| Yards per play | 6.72#22 | 6.97#12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.03#27 | 5.59#69 |
| Rushing yards per game | 213.3#23 | 220.9#17 |
| Net passing yards per game | 243.8#48 | 232.3#62 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 123.5#25 | 116.1#20 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 228.8#102 | 279.4#135 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#7 | 1.00#87 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#41 | 0.71#96 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75#17 | 1.86#84 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#20 | 3.14#133 |
| Stat | James Madison | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#28 | +0.15#39 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#39 | +0.03#63 |
| Success rate | 45.2%#45 | 43.3%#64 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6%#31 | 41.1%#72 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#36 | 15.6%#15 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#26 | 9.6%#16 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#36 | 14.7%#58 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.4%#6 | 12.0%#39 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.59#32 | 4.31#50 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21#21 | 3.57#45 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#2 | own 31#47 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#27 | own 28#45 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#47 | 65.0#75 |
| Stat | James Madison | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#36 | +0.22#6 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23#26 | +0.08#72 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#39 | -0.05#29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#47 | +0.09#87 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.3%#57 | 45.8%#53 |
| Passing success rate | 44.7%#48 | 43.1%#56 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#21 | 15.7%#42 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.9%#17 | 32.8%#45 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5%#54 | 27.4%#41 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8%#91 | 40.0%#80 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.4%#79 | 40.2%#88 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 76.9%#7 | 73.0%#21 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.7%#26 | 60.0%#75 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: James Madison schedule · UConn schedule · all Week 11 projections
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