Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected James Madison 27.2, Old Dominion 23 at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: James Madison wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 50.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
James Madison is 3-0, scoring 44.3 and allowing 9.7 points per game (+34.6 per game). Old Dominion is 1-2, scoring 23 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-1.7 per game).
James Madison's middle-of-the-pack offense (50th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) meets Old Dominion's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points James Madison puts up. James Madison's middle-of-the-pack defense (56th) should limit Old Dominion's below-average offense (109th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between James Madison by 27 and Old Dominion by 18 about 80% of the time.
Old Dominion gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. James Madison is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: James Madison 46, Old Dominion 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.8 points and the total by 15.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (James Madison / Old Dominion) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | James Madison -4.75 → James Madison -7 | 49 → 44.25 | -237.5 / +195 |
| DraftKings | James Madison -4.5 → James Madison -7 | 50.5 → 44.5 | -265 / +215 |
| Bovada | James Madison -5 → James Madison -7 | 47.5 → 44 | -210 / +175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Old Dominion win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | James Madison -4 | 50.1 | 39% |
| Market consensus | James Madison -7 | 44.3 | 33% |
| Blended projection | James Madison -6.5 | 45.8 | 33% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Old Dominion win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 33% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model James Madison -4.2 · market James Madison -7 · difference +2.8 pts (Old Dominion view)
- Total
- model 50.1 · market 44.25 · difference +5.9
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Old Dominion than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | James Madison 27.2, Old Dominion 23.0 | James Madison 61%right winner | 21.8 | 15.9 |
| New formula | James Madison 26.5, Old Dominion 22.9 | James Madison 59%right winner | 22.4 | 16.5 |
Final: James Madison 46, Old Dominion 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
James Madison vs Old Dominion: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | James Madison | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 44.3#17 | 23.0#110 |
| Points allowed per game | 9.7#10 | 24.7#89 |
| Yards per play | 7.15#23 | 5.17#119 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.49#21 | 4.32#17 |
| Rushing yards per game | 221.0#36 | 155.0#90 |
| Net passing yards per game | 212.7#86 | 124.0#133 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 136.3#64 | 143.7#72 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 175.0#48 | 158.7#30 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#12 | 1.33#116 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#68 | 0.67#102 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#85 | 3.00#19 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#68 | 3.00#128 |
| Stat | James Madison | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#67 | -0.16#136 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#57 | -0.16#7 |
| Success rate | 44.2%#67 | 33.3%#133 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.2%#31 | 31.2%#5 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#81 | 14.9%#30 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#77 | 10.2%#43 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#90 | 17.2%#22 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.3%#57 | 19.9%#137 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.31#64 | 3.40#124 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.99#16 | 3.16#22 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#19 | own 28#109 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#38 | own 33#123 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.7#109 | 54.0#135 |
| Stat | James Madison | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#59 | -0.06#120 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#69 | -0.34#137 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00#65 | -0.20#8 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#67 | -0.12#23 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.9%#36 | 36.7%#118 |
| Passing success rate | 42.6%#82 | 27.5%#135 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#82 | 29.7%#138 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.3%#51 | 35.3%#45 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.1%#59 | 28.4%#65 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9%#76 | 40.0%#89 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#71 | 35.4%#56 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.6%#52 | 54.5%#109 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.3%#29 | 35.7%#13 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: James Madison schedule · Old Dominion schedule · all Week 4 projections
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