Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected James Madison 32.9, Georgia Southern 22.8 at Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: James Madison wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.1 points and 55.7 combined points.
James Madison is 5-0, scoring 44.8 and allowing 13.2 points per game (+31.6 per game). Georgia Southern is 2-3, scoring 24.8 and allowing 23.8 points per game (+1 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: James Madison's strong offense (33rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.2 points against an average defense) against Georgia Southern's below-average defense (94th). James Madison's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th) should limit Georgia Southern's below-average offense (84th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between James Madison by 33 and Georgia Southern by 12 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. James Madison is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.1 points and the total by 4.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (James Madison / Georgia Southern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | James Madison -8.5 → James Madison -7 | 54 → 51.5 | -330 / +260 |
| DraftKings | James Madison -7.5 → James Madison -7 | 54.5 → 51.5 | -290 / +235 |
| Bovada | James Madison -9.5 → James Madison -7 | 53.5 → 51.5 | -370 / +285 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia Southern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | James Madison -10 | 55.7 | 25% |
| Market consensus | James Madison -7 | 51.5 | 27% |
| Blended projection | James Madison -7.5 | 52.4 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia Southern win probability
- model 25% · market (no-vig) 27% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model James Madison -10.1 · market James Madison -7 · difference -3.1 pts (Georgia Southern view)
- Total
- model 55.7 · market 51.5 · difference +4.2
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward James Madison than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | James Madison 32.9, Georgia Southern 22.8 | James Madison 75%right winner | 7.1 | 4.7 |
| New formula | James Madison 33.1, Georgia Southern 22.6 | James Madison 75%right winner | 7.4 | 4.7 |
Final: James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
James Madison vs Georgia Southern: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | James Madison | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 44.8#6 | 24.8#94 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.2#10 | 23.8#75 |
| Yards per play | 7.05#18 | 5.67#102 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.61#16 | 5.06#37 |
| Rushing yards per game | 230.2#20 | 129.0#118 |
| Net passing yards per game | 229.4#67 | 251.2#48 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 117.8#27 | 134.0#48 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.6#76 | 180.6#40 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.20#12 | 0.40#27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.20#40 | 0.80#83 |
| Sacks per game | 3.20#13 | 2.20#55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#31 | 1.40#57 |
| Stat | James Madison | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#41 | +0.07#80 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#53 | +0.07#86 |
| Success rate | 45.9%#42 | 43.3%#70 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.0%#29 | 40.2%#67 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#68 | 11.5%#102 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#27 | 10.7%#39 |
| Havoc rate | 15.0%#45 | 14.9%#52 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5%#17 | 14.1%#95 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.57#44 | 4.04#75 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.11#14 | 4.08#85 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#9 | own 26#125 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#50 | own 30#85 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.2#72 | 67.0#57 |
| Stat | James Madison | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#22 | +0.05#86 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#55 | +0.08#70 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#44 | +0.12#113 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#55 | +0.01#60 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.1%#41 | 44.2%#73 |
| Passing success rate | 45.2%#51 | 42.7%#75 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3%#51 | 16.8%#70 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.8%#32 | 31.8%#70 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9%#69 | 27.9%#57 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.6%#67 | 39.7%#85 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1%#72 | 35.9%#48 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.7%#22 | 66.7%#56 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.5%#34 | 53.3%#51 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: James Madison schedule · Georgia Southern schedule · all Week 6 projections
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