2026 schedule

Georgia Southern Eagles

3-4SOS #81

2026 season so far

Georgia Southern is 3-4 against the 81st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23 points per game (+1.4 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Georgia Southern ranks 89th of 139 FBS teams overall — 87th on offense and 85th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs App State in Week 9. We project Georgia Southern 30, App State 24 — Georgia Southern wins 67% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
0-2 · SOS #61
Win 31-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Georgia Southern by 29.7
Total 50.3
DraftKings
GASO -28.5
Total 51.5
Final Georgia Southern by 31. Georgia Southern beat the spread. 31 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia Southern -28.25 (open Georgia Southern -25.5) · O/U 52 (open 51.5) · ML +1500 / -4500 · Georgia Southern 94% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +4 pct pts (Georgia Southern view)
ESPN+ Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Clemson Tigers
1-1 · SOS #24
Loss 7-22
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Clemson by 8.5
Total 51.7
DraftKings
CLEM -20.5
Total 54.5
Final Clemson by 15. Georgia Southern beat the spread. 29 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Clemson -20 (open Clemson -23.75) · O/U 54.5 (open 56.5) · ML +825 / -1575 · Clemson 90% no-vig · model vs market -11.5 pts, -19 pct pts (Clemson view)
ACC Network Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
at
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
2-2 · SOS #119
Loss 27-31
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 1.3
Total 44.3
DraftKings
JXST -3.5
Total 51.5
Final Jacksonville State by 4. Jacksonville State beat the spread. 58 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -3.5 (open Jacksonville State -3) · O/U 51.25 (open 53) · ML +147.5 / -175 · Jacksonville State 61% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -8 pct pts (Jacksonville State view)
ESPN+ AmFirst Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
J. Williams WR · Low rec yds 45 (avg 63) · 74% · 7 ✓C. Creel QB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 73) · 73% · 38 ✓J. Williams WR · Low catches 3.6 (avg 4.7) · 68% · 1 ✓
vs
#25 Houston Cougars
3-1 · SOS #36
Loss 28-42
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Houston by 9
Total 54.2
DraftKings
HOU -17.5
Total 56.5
Final Houston by 14. Georgia Southern beat the spread. 70 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Houston -17.25 (open Houston -18.75) · O/U 56.5 (open 55.25) · ML -975 / +625 · Georgia Southern 13% no-vig · model vs market +8.3 pts, +15 pct pts (Georgia Southern view)
Game-time weather: 81°F, Wind 5 mph.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTBR)
ESPNU Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · D. Mbadinga RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 45) · 75% · 37 ✓A. Hollins WR · Low rec yds 46 (avg 67) · 77% · did not playM. Hughes RB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 71) · 72% · 70 ✓
at
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
1-4 · SOS #115
Win 31-24
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Georgia Southern by 3.1
Total 52.5
DraftKings
GASO -2.5
Total 53.5
Final Georgia Southern by 7. Georgia Southern beat the spread. 55 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia Southern -2.25 (open Georgia Southern -0.25) · O/U 53.5 (open 53.25) · ML -139 / +117 · Coastal Carolina 44% no-vig · model vs market -0.9 pts, -2 pct pts (Coastal Carolina view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 75°F, Wind 3 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMYR)
ESPN+ Brooks Stadium (SC)
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10Short dog · fav lost, weak D: missed Short dog vs reeling favShort dog · fav off loss · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game: Record 265 hits, 223 misses (54% hit rate) over 488 graded games · 2026: 11-13Short dog · fav off loss: missed
J. Dallas WR · Low catches 5.7 (avg 7) · 68% · 1 ✓
vs
James Madison Dukes
6-0 · SOS #128
Loss 24-27
Week 6
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 10.1
Total 55.7
DraftKings
JMU -7
Total 51.5
Final James Madison by 3. Georgia Southern beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -7 (open James Madison -8.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 54) · ML -330 / +260 · Georgia Southern 27% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -1 pct pts (Georgia Southern view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 77°F, Wind 8 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTBR)
ESPNU Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
G. Pettaway RB · Low rush yds 82 (avg 99) · 69% · 151 ✗J. Dallas WR · Low catches 4.6 (avg 5.8) · 66% · 8 ✗C. Coleman QB · High pass yds 221 (avg 196) · 56% · 171 ✗
at
Old Dominion Monarchs
2-5 · SOS #79
Win 23-15
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Georgia Southern by 0.5
Total 47.5
DraftKings
GASO -3
Total 44.5
Final Georgia Southern by 8. Georgia Southern beat the spread. 38 points — under the 44.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia Southern -3 · O/U 44.5 (open 48.25) · ML -165 / +140 · Old Dominion 40% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +9 pct pts (Old Dominion view)
Kickoff forecast: Partly cloudy, 69°F, Wind 9 mph E, 2% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 11, 8:43 AM EDT · last stored copy
ESPN2 S.B. Ballard Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
vs
App State Mountaineers
5-2 · SOS #124
Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-24 · 67%
Our number
Georgia Southern by 6
Total 54
DraftKings
GASO -5.5
Total 56.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia Southern -5.5 (open Georgia Southern -3.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 54.5) · ML +170 / -205 · Georgia Southern 64% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +3 pct pts (Georgia Southern view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 74°F, Wind 14 mph E, 12% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN+ Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded games (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
vs
Marshall Thundering Herd
4-3 · SOS #106
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 32-22 · 73%
Our number
Georgia Southern by 10
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Allen E. Paulson Stadium
at
Georgia State Panthers
4-3 · SOS #126
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 29-29 · 51%
Our number
dead even
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Center Parc Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
at
Troy Trojans
3-4 · SOS #113
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 27-24 · 59%
Our number
Georgia Southern by 3
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
vs
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
5-2 · SOS #101
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 25-26 · 45%
Our number
Louisiana Tech by 1
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
B. Baker QB · High pass yds 209 (avg 193) · 56%

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Georgia Southern Eagles stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-3.7

88th in FBS

Adj. offense

24.7

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

28.4

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	24.4	95 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	23.0	60 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.87	82 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.16	36 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	129.9	119 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	268.3	25 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	140.0	49 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	186.0	39 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.71	49 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.71	97 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.57	28 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.14	24 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.07	74 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.07	85 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	44.2%	55 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	39.6%	47 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	12.2%	82 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.2%	61 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	14.8%	52 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	12.6%	51 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.80	93 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.03	93 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 27	114 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 28	54 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	67.9	50 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.01	108 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.12	61 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.10	104 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.05	71 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	44.4%	70 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	44.2%	52 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	17.5%	79 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	35.2%	33 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	30.2%	73 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	39.8%	85 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	36.0%	43 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	58.3%	91 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	55.0%	45 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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