Matchup analysis
Our model projects Georgia Southern 30, App State 24 at Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Georgia Southern wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.8 points and 54.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
App State is 5-2 against the 124th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.1 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+7 per game). Georgia Southern is 3-4 against the 81st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23 points per game (+1.4 per game).
Expect App State to find it hard going: Georgia Southern's below-average defense (85th) outranks App State's below-average offense (101st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.9 points against an average defense). Georgia Southern's below-average offense (87th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over App State's below-average defense (105th); that mismatch is where most of Georgia Southern's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between App State by 16 and Georgia Southern by 29 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia Southern by about 4.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (App State / Georgia Southern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia Southern -3.5 → Georgia Southern -5.5 | 54.5 → 56.5 | +170 / -205 |
| DraftKings | Georgia Southern -3.5 → Georgia Southern -5.5 | 54.5 → 56.5 | +170 / -205 |
This game's lines: ESPN · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia Southern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia Southern -7 | 54.2 | 67% |
| Market consensus | Georgia Southern -5.5 | 56.5 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Georgia Southern -5.5 | 56.7 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia Southern win probability
- model 67% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia Southern -6.8 · market Georgia Southern -5.5 · difference +1.3 pts (Georgia Southern view)
- Total
- model 54.2 · market 56.5 · difference -2.3
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Georgia Southern than the market.
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App State vs Georgia Southern: stat comparison
| Stat | App State | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.1#59 | 24.4#95 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1#61 | 23.0#60 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#70 | 5.87#82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.24#43 | 5.16#36 |
| Rushing yards per game | 153.4#96 | 129.9#119 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.3#35 | 268.3#25 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 138.0#48 | 140.0#49 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 223.6#97 | 186.0#39 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#37 | 0.71#49 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.57#9 | 0.71#97 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#116 | 2.57#28 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#54 | 1.14#24 |
| Stat | App State | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#69 | +0.07#74 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#54 | +0.07#85 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#81 | 44.2%#55 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8%#90 | 39.6%#47 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5%#30 | 12.2%#82 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#50 | 11.2%#61 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#60 | 14.8%#52 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5%#77 | 12.6%#51 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#69 | 3.80#93 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#60 | 4.03#93 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#35 | own 27#114 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#49 | own 28#54 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#37 | 67.9#50 |
| Stat | App State | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00#113 | +0.01#108 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#46 | +0.12#61 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#93 | +0.10#104 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#36 | +0.05#71 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.6%#123 | 44.4%#70 |
| Passing success rate | 45.4%#43 | 44.2%#52 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#101 | 17.5%#79 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5%#50 | 35.2%#33 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.8%#47 | 30.2%#73 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5%#93 | 39.8%#85 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7%#33 | 36.0%#43 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.2%#11 | 58.3%#91 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.9%#87 | 55.0%#45 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: App State schedule · Georgia Southern schedule · all Week 9 projections
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