Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia Southern 27.8, Coastal Carolina 24.7 at Brooks Stadium (SC) in Week 5. That is a lean: Georgia Southern wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 52.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Georgia Southern is 1-3, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-0.5 per game). Coastal Carolina is 1-3, scoring 25 and allowing 23.5 points per game (+1.5 per game).
Georgia Southern's below-average offense (91st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (112th); that mismatch is where most of Georgia Southern's projected points come from. Expect Coastal Carolina to find it hard going: Georgia Southern's below-average defense (92nd) outranks Coastal Carolina's below-average offense (116th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia Southern by 26 and Coastal Carolina by 19 about 80% of the time.
Coastal Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Georgia Southern is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Georgia Southern 31, Coastal Carolina 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.9 points and the total by 2.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia Southern / Coastal Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia Southern -0.25 → Georgia Southern -2.25 | 53.25 → 53.5 | -139 / +117 |
| DraftKings | Coastal Carolina -1.5 → Georgia Southern -2.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | -148 / +124 |
| Bovada | Georgia Southern -2 | 54 → 53.5 | -130 / +110 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Coastal Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia Southern -3 | 52.5 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Georgia Southern -2 | 53.5 | 44% |
| Blended projection | Georgia Southern -2.5 | 54.0 | 44% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Coastal Carolina win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 44% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia Southern -3.1 · market Georgia Southern -2.25 · difference -0.8 pts (Coastal Carolina view)
- Total
- model 52.5 · market 53.5 · difference -1.0
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Georgia Southern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgia Southern 27.8, Coastal Carolina 24.7 | Georgia Southern 58%right winner | 3.9 | 2.5 |
| New formula | Georgia Southern 28.1, Coastal Carolina 24.0 | Georgia Southern 61%right winner | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Final: Georgia Southern 31, Coastal Carolina 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.3#103 | 25.0#94 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.8#78 | 23.5#75 |
| Yards per play | 5.38#115 | 6.07#78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.95#38 | 6.10#103 |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.8#127 | 157.8#93 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.3#48 | 232.0#64 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 127.3#45 | 206.0#126 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 173.8#38 | 177.0#41 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#42 | 1.25#112 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#93 | 1.00#76 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#63 | 2.50#46 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#78 | 3.75#135 |
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#86 | +0.04#98 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#84 | +0.13#110 |
| Success rate | 43.0%#74 | 40.1%#108 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4%#74 | 45.3%#116 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.8%#125 | 14.8%#32 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8%#60 | 10.9%#63 |
| Havoc rate | 16.0%#33 | 12.7%#98 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#89 | 16.5%#130 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.90#91 | 3.76#103 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.24#98 | 3.48#49 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#133 | own 29#87 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#103 | own 29#81 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.8#36 | 64.3#84 |
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#69 | +0.06#83 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#82 | +0.02#95 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#90 | +0.12#112 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#86 | +0.15#102 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8%#50 | 44.2%#77 |
| Passing success rate | 40.7%#87 | 37.0%#115 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.3%#27 | 15.6%#62 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.9%#60 | 35.8%#37 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8%#104 | 23.5%#22 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.7%#72 | 38.8%#95 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.3%#69 | 40.8%#94 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.5%#83 | 69.7%#47 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.8%#51 | 47.9%#33 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia Southern schedule · Coastal Carolina schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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