Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Houston 31.6, Georgia Southern 22.6 at Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Houston wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9 points and 54.1 combined points.
Houston (No. 25) is 2-1, scoring 45.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+27.3 per game). Georgia Southern is 1-2, scoring 21.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Houston's strong offense (23rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.9 points against an average defense) against Georgia Southern's middle-of-the-pack defense (69th). Houston's strong defense (38th) should limit Georgia Southern's below-average offense (95th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston by 32 and Georgia Southern by 14 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Houston is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Houston 42, Georgia Southern 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5 points and the total by 15.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Houston / Georgia Southern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Houston -18.75 → Houston -17.25 | 55.25 → 56.5 | -975 / +625 |
| DraftKings | Houston -19.5 → Houston -17.5 | 55.5 → 56.5 | -950 / +625 |
| Bovada | Houston -18 → Houston -17 | 55 → 56.5 | -1000 / +625 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia Southern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Houston -9 | 54.1 | 28% |
| Market consensus | Houston -17 | 56.5 | 13% |
| Blended projection | Houston -16 | 56.7 | 14% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia Southern win probability
- model 28% · market (no-vig) 13% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model Houston -9 · market Houston -17.25 · difference +8.3 pts (Georgia Southern view)
- Total
- model 54.1 · market 56.5 · difference -2.4
Model margin is 8.3 pts more toward Georgia Southern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Houston 31.6, Georgia Southern 22.6 | Houston 72%right winner | 5.0 | 15.9 |
| New formula | Houston 31.1, Georgia Southern 23.0 | Houston 70%right winner | 5.9 | 15.9 |
Final: Houston 42, Georgia Southern 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Houston vs Georgia Southern: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Houston | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.3#16 | 21.7#114 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.0#46 | 17.7#45 |
| Yards per play | 7.66#11 | 5.28#112 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.50#76 | 4.24#13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 265.3#14 | 128.0#121 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.0#40 | 250.3#49 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 83.3#9 | 102.3#24 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.7#106 | 152.0#23 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#55 | 0.67#66 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67#18 | 1.00#66 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#55 | 2.67#30 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#61 | 1.67#83 |
| Stat | Houston | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.25#13 | -0.05#125 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#65 | -0.06#29 |
| Success rate | 51.5%#10 | 41.1%#96 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7%#81 | 32.0%#6 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3%#44 | 10.4%#116 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#90 | 10.7%#52 |
| Havoc rate | 19.0%#10 | 20.0%#6 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#39 | 13.0%#69 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.59#41 | 3.19#132 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.17#92 | 3.29#29 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#23 | own 25#132 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#18 | own 30#88 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.7#34 | 71.7#25 |
| Stat | Houston | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20#17 | +0.09#64 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#19 | -0.14#124 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#56 | +0.04#84 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#76 | -0.16#18 |
| Rushing success rate | 54.7%#8 | 47.9%#44 |
| Passing success rate | 51.7%#26 | 37.2%#109 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.9%#9 | 14.6%#39 |
| Passing-down success rate | 47.0%#3 | 32.2%#65 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7%#94 | 25.0%#38 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 66.7%#3 | 39.6%#90 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.8%#31 | 26.2%#13 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.4%#55 | 54.5%#110 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 90.0%#133 | 33.3%#11 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston schedule · Georgia Southern schedule · all Week 4 projections
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