Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia Southern 40, Charleston Southern 10.3 at Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Georgia Southern wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 29.7 points and 50.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Charleston Southern is 0-1, scoring 17 and allowing 20 points per game (-3 per game). Georgia Southern has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Charleston Southern plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Georgia Southern's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia Southern by 7 and Georgia Southern by 52 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia Southern by about 27.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Charleston Southern 0, Georgia Southern 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.3 points and the total by 19.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Charleston Southern / Georgia Southern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia Southern -25.5 → Georgia Southern -28.25 | 51.5 → 52 | +1500 / -4500 |
| DraftKings | Georgia Southern -25.5 → Georgia Southern -28.5 | 51.5 | +1800 / -5000 |
| Bovada | Georgia Southern -25.5 → Georgia Southern -28 | 51.5 → 52.5 | +1200 / -4000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia Southern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia Southern -29.5 | 50.3 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Georgia Southern -28.5 | 52.0 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Georgia Southern -28.5 | 52.5 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia Southern win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia Southern -29.7 · market Georgia Southern -28.25 · difference +1.4 pts (Georgia Southern view)
- Total
- model 50.3 · market 52 · difference -1.7
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Georgia Southern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Charleston Southern 10.3, Georgia Southern 40.0 | Georgia Southern 97%right winner | 1.3 | 19.3 |
| New formula | Charleston Southern 11.3, Georgia Southern 38.4 | Georgia Southern 94%right winner | 3.9 | 18.6 |
Final: Charleston Southern 0, Georgia Southern 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Charleston Southern vs Georgia Southern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Charleston Southern | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.6 | 27.9#65 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 32.3#120 |
| Yards per play | 5.44 | 6.07#52 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.98 | 6.68#131 |
| Rushing yards per game | 130.9 | 166.2#71 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.9 | 245.4#52 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.4 | 228.1#134 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.4 | 238.5#106 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 0.77#28 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.23#51 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 0.85#134 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17 | 2.23#101 |
| Stat | Charleston Southern | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.08#38 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.13#129 |
| Success rate | 35.6% | 45.6%#33 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5% | 47.9%#131 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 12.4%#70 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 15.0%#128 |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 11.4%#104 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 10.8%#35 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.89 | 4.08#53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.13 | 4.03#89 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | own 29#107 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | own 28#42 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.2 | 67.8#52 |
| Stat | Charleston Southern | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.07#43 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.10#42 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.17#136 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.08#100 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.7% | 46.7%#38 |
| Passing success rate | 37.1% | 44.4%#35 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.7% | 15.8%#29 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.0% | 35.8%#19 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.9% | 35.5%#127 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.3% | 45.8%#34 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.0% | 47.3%#128 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 56.9%#101 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.1% | 62.3%#85 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Charleston Southern schedule · Georgia Southern schedule · all Week 1 projections
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