Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia Southern 24, Old Dominion 23.5 at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Georgia Southern wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 47.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Georgia Southern is 2-4, scoring 24.7 and allowing 24.3 points per game (+0.4 per game). Old Dominion is 2-4, scoring 18.2 and allowing 27.5 points per game (-9.3 per game).
Georgia Southern's below-average offense (84th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense) meets Old Dominion's below-average defense (84th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Georgia Southern puts up. Georgia Southern's below-average defense (89th) should limit Old Dominion's struggling offense (118th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia Southern by 23 and Old Dominion by 22 about 80% of the time.
Old Dominion gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Georgia Southern is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Georgia Southern 23, Old Dominion 15. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 9.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia Southern / Old Dominion) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia Southern -3 | 48.25 → 44.5 | -165 / +140 |
| DraftKings | Georgia Southern -2.5 → Georgia Southern -3 | 49.5 → 44.5 | -155 / +130 |
| Bovada | Georgia Southern -3.5 → Georgia Southern -3 | 47 → 44.5 | -175 / +150 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Old Dominion win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia Southern -0.5 | 47.4 | 49% |
| Market consensus | Georgia Southern -3 | 44.5 | 40% |
| Blended projection | Georgia Southern -2.5 | 45.9 | 43% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Old Dominion win probability
- model 49% · market (no-vig) 40% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia Southern -0.5 · market Georgia Southern -3 · difference +2.5 pts (Old Dominion view)
- Total
- model 47.4 · market 44.5 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 2.5 pts more toward Old Dominion than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgia Southern 24.0, Old Dominion 23.5 | Georgia Southern 51%right winner | 7.5 | 9.4 |
| New formula | Georgia Southern 24.8, Old Dominion 23.0 | Georgia Southern 55%right winner | 6.2 | 9.8 |
Final: Georgia Southern 23, Old Dominion 15. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.7#96 | 18.2#126 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3#76 | 27.5#101 |
| Yards per play | 5.92#83 | 4.20#138 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.21#46 | 4.79#18 |
| Rushing yards per game | 127.8#118 | 136.3#115 |
| Net passing yards per game | 266.5#32 | 123.3#133 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 149.8#63 | 146.5#58 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 186.2#42 | 179.8#33 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#50 | 1.33#115 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#101 | 0.83#72 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33#44 | 2.00#69 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17#32 | 4.67#138 |
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#77 | -0.18#137 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#102 | -0.11#11 |
| Success rate | 43.8%#62 | 30.6%#138 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6%#68 | 35.3%#16 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#80 | 9.9%#125 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#58 | 11.2%#57 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3%#63 | 15.5%#31 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5%#79 | 22.5%#138 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.91#88 | 2.93#131 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.06#85 | 3.89#77 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#129 | own 28#97 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#81 | own 34#136 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.7#58 | 61.8#107 |
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#103 | -0.09#128 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#63 | -0.29#136 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#117 | -0.13#7 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#76 | -0.08#30 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4%#84 | 34.4%#131 |
| Passing success rate | 44.0%#55 | 25.7%#137 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.3%#73 | 28.1%#138 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.3%#54 | 28.5%#96 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.9%#80 | 25.2%#22 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.2%#75 | 34.1%#117 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.7%#60 | 34.8%#40 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#56 | 44.4%#128 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.6%#48 | 48.0%#25 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia Southern schedule · Old Dominion schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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