Matchup analysis
Our model projects Louisiana Tech 26, Georgia Southern 24 at Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Louisiana Tech wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 50.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 against the 102nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 21 points per game (+11.3 per game). Georgia Southern is 3-4 against the 83rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23 points per game (+1.4 per game).
Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Georgia Southern's middle-of-the-pack defense (83rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisiana Tech puts up. Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th) should limit Georgia Southern's below-average offense (89th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana Tech by 24 and Georgia Southern by 21 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Louisiana Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Louisiana Tech vs Georgia Southern: stat comparison
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.3#47 | 24.4#95 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0#46 | 23.0#60 |
| Yards per play | 5.89#80 | 5.87#82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39#55 | 5.16#36 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.6#84 | 129.9#119 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.7#60 | 268.3#25 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 131.9#39 | 140.0#49 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.0#78 | 186.0#39 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#90 | 0.71#49 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.86#6 | 0.71#97 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#30 | 2.57#28 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#103 | 1.14#24 |
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#57 | +0.07#74 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#9 | +0.07#85 |
| Success rate | 44.0%#59 | 44.2%#55 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.8%#20 | 39.6%#47 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#50 | 12.2%#82 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#96 | 11.2%#61 |
| Havoc rate | 18.0%#7 | 14.8%#52 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.0%#109 | 12.6%#51 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.74#97 | 3.80#93 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43#35 | 4.03#93 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#4 | own 27#114 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#75 | own 28#54 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6#66 | 67.9#50 |
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#97 | +0.01#108 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#38 | +0.12#61 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#16 | +0.10#104 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.14#14 | +0.05#71 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.4%#102 | 44.4%#70 |
| Passing success rate | 46.6%#33 | 44.2%#52 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4%#91 | 17.5%#79 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.7%#23 | 35.2%#33 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9%#34 | 30.2%#73 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.9%#28 | 39.8%#85 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8%#83 | 36.0%#43 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.3%#33 | 58.3%#91 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.6%#5 | 55.0%#45 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana Tech schedule · Georgia Southern schedule · all Week 13 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.