Matchup analysis
Our model projects Georgia Southern 32, Marshall 22 at Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Georgia Southern wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.4 points and 54 combined points.
Marshall is 4-3 against the 106th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.7 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-9 per game). Georgia Southern is 3-4 against the 81st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23 points per game (+1.4 per game).
Georgia Southern's below-average defense (85th) should limit Marshall's below-average offense (108th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Georgia Southern's below-average offense (87th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) against Marshall's below-average defense (118th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Marshall by 13 and Georgia Southern by 32 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia Southern by about 7.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Marshall vs Georgia Southern: stat comparison
| Stat | Marshall | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.7#109 | 24.4#95 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.7#117 | 23.0#60 |
| Yards per play | 5.93#78 | 5.87#82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.65#130 | 5.16#36 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.1#74 | 129.9#119 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.0#56 | 268.3#25 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.7#118 | 140.0#49 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.0#116 | 186.0#39 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#113 | 0.71#49 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#99 | 0.71#97 |
| Sacks per game | 0.86#136 | 2.57#28 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#77 | 1.14#24 |
| Stat | Marshall | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#68 | +0.07#74 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#103 | +0.07#85 |
| Success rate | 44.1%#57 | 44.2%#55 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3%#98 | 39.6%#47 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#74 | 12.2%#82 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3%#103 | 11.2%#61 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5%#121 | 14.8%#52 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#97 | 12.6%#51 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.20#127 | 3.80#93 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.80#68 | 4.03#93 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#92 | own 27#114 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#81 | own 28#54 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.9#51 | 67.9#50 |
| Stat | Marshall | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#38 | +0.01#108 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#90 | +0.12#61 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#53 | +0.10#104 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21#120 | +0.05#71 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.1%#30 | 44.4%#70 |
| Passing success rate | 41.6%#69 | 44.2%#52 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0%#84 | 17.5%#79 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#81 | 35.2%#33 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.2%#74 | 30.2%#73 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.1%#70 | 39.8%#85 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.8%#72 | 36.0%#43 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.9%#120 | 58.3%#91 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.0%#64 | 55.0%#45 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Marshall schedule · Georgia Southern schedule · all Week 10 projections
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