Matchup analysis
Our model projects Georgia Southern 27, Troy 24 at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) in Week 12. That is a lean: Georgia Southern wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 51.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Georgia Southern is 3-4 against the 81st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23 points per game (+1.4 per game). Troy is 3-4 against the 113th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 24.9 points per game (-2 per game).
Georgia Southern's below-average offense (87th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) meets Troy's below-average defense (98th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Georgia Southern puts up. Expect Troy to find it hard going: Georgia Southern's below-average defense (85th) outranks Troy's below-average offense (111th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia Southern by 26 and Troy by 19 about 80% of the time.
Troy gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Georgia Southern is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Georgia Southern vs Troy: stat comparison
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4#95 | 22.9#105 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0#60 | 24.9#76 |
| Yards per play | 5.87#82 | 5.75#92 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.16#36 | 5.23#40 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.9#119 | 213.3#24 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.3#25 | 183.4#113 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.0#49 | 140.6#50 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 186.0#39 | 183.9#33 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#49 | 0.86#63 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#97 | 1.14#36 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#28 | 1.71#98 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#24 | 2.14#93 |
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#74 | +0.05#91 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#85 | +0.03#64 |
| Success rate | 44.2%#55 | 41.4%#93 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6%#47 | 41.9%#80 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#82 | 11.7%#95 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#61 | 12.1%#81 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#52 | 13.6%#77 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.6%#51 | 15.1%#111 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.80#93 | 3.48#113 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.03#93 | 3.79#65 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#114 | own 27#129 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#54 | own 31#115 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.9#50 | 69.0#38 |
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#108 | +0.13#40 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#61 | -0.05#120 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#104 | -0.01#44 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#71 | +0.07#80 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.4%#70 | 43.8%#74 |
| Passing success rate | 44.2%#52 | 35.1%#124 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#79 | 14.9%#32 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2%#33 | 28.1%#102 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.2%#73 | 27.0%#36 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.8%#85 | 34.0%#120 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#43 | 33.3%#23 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.3%#91 | 65.1%#58 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.0%#45 | 58.7%#68 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia Southern schedule · Troy schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.