Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jacksonville State 22.8, Georgia Southern 21.5 at AmFirst Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Jacksonville State wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 44.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Georgia Southern is 1-1, scoring 19 and allowing 11 points per game (+8 per game). Jacksonville State is 1-2, scoring 27.7 and allowing 23 points per game (+4.7 per game).
Jacksonville State's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th) should limit Georgia Southern's below-average offense (103rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.2 points against an average defense). Jacksonville State's middle-of-the-pack offense (74th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) meets Georgia Southern's middle-of-the-pack defense (70th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jacksonville State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia Southern by 21 and Jacksonville State by 24 about 80% of the time.
Jacksonville State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Georgia Southern would be favoured by 0.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Georgia Southern 27, Jacksonville State 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.7 points and the total by 13.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia Southern / Jacksonville State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Jacksonville State -3 → Jacksonville State -3.5 | 53 → 51.25 | +147.5 / -175 |
| Bovada | Jacksonville State -3.5 | 52.5 → 51 | +150 / -175 |
| DraftKings | Jacksonville State -2.5 → Jacksonville State -3.5 | 53.5 → 51.5 | +145 / -175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Jacksonville State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Jacksonville State -1.5 | 44.2 | 53% |
| Market consensus | Jacksonville State -3.5 | 51.3 | 61% |
| Blended projection | Jacksonville State -3 | 51.6 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Jacksonville State win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 61% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Jacksonville State -1.3 · market Jacksonville State -3.5 · difference -2.2 pts (Jacksonville State view)
- Total
- model 44.2 · market 51.25 · difference -7.0
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Georgia Southern than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgia Southern 21.5, Jacksonville State 22.8 | Jacksonville State 53%right winner | 2.7 | 13.8 |
| New formula | Georgia Southern 21.9, Jacksonville State 29.2 | Jacksonville State 68%right winner | 3.2 | 6.9 |
Final: Georgia Southern 27, Jacksonville State 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.0#117 | 27.7#87 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.0#20 | 23.0#81 |
| Yards per play | 5.34#115 | 6.34#66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.51#7 | 5.19#66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 98.5#131 | 146.3#98 |
| Net passing yards per game | 283.5#34 | 238.3#62 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 100.5#33 | 201.0#118 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 131.0#20 | 124.0#14 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#57 | 0.67#76 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#37 | 1.00#71 |
| Sacks per game | 4.00#8 | 1.67#78 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#95 | 1.33#63 |
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09#125 | +0.15#40 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.21#4 | +0.08#98 |
| Success rate | 37.8%#112 | 46.6%#33 |
| Success rate allowed | 28.3%#4 | 40.8%#78 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#91 | 11.8%#90 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.0%#19 | 11.7%#78 |
| Havoc rate | 21.1%#4 | 14.0%#74 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2%#93 | 13.5%#73 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.48#134 | 3.90#91 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.28#3 | 2.96#16 |
| Average starting field position | own 23#135 | own 31#71 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#112 | own 30#89 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.5#32 | 60.7#98 |
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#71 | +0.04#84 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15#124 | +0.28#26 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#68 | +0.16#121 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.42#2 | -0.04#45 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4%#87 | 44.8%#71 |
| Passing success rate | 35.6%#112 | 50.7%#37 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2%#57 | 18.2%#87 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.7%#68 | 37.3%#28 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.7%#28 | 28.3%#65 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.0%#128 | 54.1%#25 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 22.6%#14 | 42.9%#101 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.2%#113 | 52.5%#108 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 19.1%#6 | 58.0%#66 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia Southern schedule · Jacksonville State schedule · all Week 3 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.