2026 schedule

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

6-2SOS #119

2026 season so far

Jacksonville State is 6-2 against the 119th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.9 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+7 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Jacksonville State ranks 90th of 139 FBS teams overall — 95th on offense and 82nd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs Sam Houston in Week 10. We project Jacksonville State 32, Sam Houston 15 — Jacksonville State wins 86% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
North Dakota State Bison
1-0 · SOS #123
Loss 7-33
Week 1
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 9
Total 54.4
DraftKings
NDSU -6.5
Total 46.5
Final North Dakota State by 26. North Dakota State beat the spread. 40 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -6.75 (open North Dakota State -10) · O/U 46.5 (open 48.5) · ML +240 / -297.5 · North Dakota State 72% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +1 pct pts (North Dakota State view)
CBSSN Fargodome
vs
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
0-2 · SOS #36
Win 49-7
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 28.1
Total 47.7
DraftKings
JXST -22.5
Total 51.5
Final Jacksonville State by 42. Jacksonville State beat the spread. 56 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -22.25 (open Jacksonville State -20.25) · O/U 52.25 (open 53) · ML +950 / -1850 · Jacksonville State 91% no-vig · model vs market +5.8 pts, +6 pct pts (Jacksonville State view)
ESPN+ AmFirst Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
at
Ohio Bobcats
1-1 · SOS #135
Loss 27-29
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 7.3
Total 50.3
DraftKings
OHIO -1.5
Total 48.5
Final Ohio by 2. Ohio beat the spread. 56 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio -1.75 (open Ohio -2.25) · O/U 49.25 (open 50) · ML +105 / -125 · Ohio 53% no-vig · model vs market +5.6 pts, +15 pct pts (Ohio view)
ESPN+ Peden Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10Short dog · fav lost, weak D: missed Short dog vs reeling favShort dog · fav off loss · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game: Record 265 hits, 223 misses (54% hit rate) over 488 graded games · 2026: 11-13Short dog · fav off loss: missed
vs
Georgia Southern Eagles
1-2 · SOS #81
Win 31-27
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 1.3
Total 44.3
DraftKings
JXST -3.5
Total 51.5
Final Jacksonville State by 4. Jacksonville State beat the spread. 58 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -3.5 (open Jacksonville State -3) · O/U 51.25 (open 53) · ML +147.5 / -175 · Jacksonville State 61% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -8 pct pts (Jacksonville State view)
ESPN+ AmFirst Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
J. Williams WR · Low rec yds 45 (avg 63) · 74% · 7 ✓C. Creel QB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 73) · 73% · 38 ✓J. Williams WR · Low catches 3.6 (avg 4.7) · 68% · 1 ✓
vs
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
2-2 · SOS #125
Win 23-13
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 14.3
Total 55.3
DraftKings
JXST -7
Total 50.5
Final Jacksonville State by 10. Jacksonville State beat the spread. 36 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -7 (open Jacksonville State -9) · O/U 51 (open 53.25) · ML +250 / -312.5 · Jacksonville State 73% no-vig · model vs market +7.3 pts, +10 pct pts (Jacksonville State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KANB)
ESPN+ AmFirst Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
C. Lacy WR · Low catches 6.5 (avg 7.7) · 65% · 6 ✓
at
Kennesaw State Owls
1-4 · SOS #96
Win 27-26
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 1.9
Total 49.9
DraftKings
JXST -3
Total 48.5
Final Jacksonville State by 1. Kennesaw State beat the spread. 53 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -3 (open Jacksonville State -2.75) · O/U 48.75 (open 49.25) · ML -156.5 / +132 · Kennesaw State 41% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Kennesaw State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRYY)
CBSSN Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
vs
Florida International Panthers
3-3 · SOS #137
Win 27-24
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 5.5
Total 45.7
DraftKings
JXST -3
Total 44.5
Final Jacksonville State by 3. The spread landed exactly on the number. 51 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -3 · O/U 44.25 (open 45.5) · ML +120 / -141 · Jacksonville State 56% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +8 pct pts (Jacksonville State view)
Kickoff forecast: Clear, 75°F, Wind calm, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 11, 8:43 AM EDT · last stored copy
ESPNU AmFirst Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
C. Creel QB · Low rush yds 50 (avg 68) · 72% · 95 ✗
at
New Mexico State Aggies
3-5 · SOS #114
Win 24-0
Week 9
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 3.1
Total 52.9
DraftKings
JXST -3
Total 50.5
Final Jacksonville State by 24. Jacksonville State beat the spread. 24 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -3 · O/U 50.5 · ML -155 / +129 · New Mexico State 41% no-vig · model vs market -0.1 pts, +1 pct pts (New Mexico State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KELP)
ESPN2 Aggie Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
C. Creel QB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 71) · 71% · 211 ✗
vs
Sam Houston Bearkats
1-7 · SOS #118
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 32-15 · 86%
Our number
Jacksonville State by 17
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN AmFirst Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · A. McCaskill RB · Low rush yds 27 (avg 29) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · M. Dowdy RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 29) · 77%T. Burns Jr. WR · Low rec yds 39 (avg 56) · 74%
at
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
3-5 · SOS #89
Sat, Nov 14, 8:30 PM
Week 11
Proj 28-23 · 62%
Our number
Jacksonville State by 5
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
vs
Missouri State Bears
3-5 · SOS #108
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 33-21 · 78%
Our number
Jacksonville State by 12
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
AmFirst Stadium
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · B. Dubar RB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 36) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · R. Green Jr. RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 34) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · C. Lair RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 32) · 77%
at
Delaware Blue Hens
4-4 · SOS #116
Sat, Nov 28, 8:30 PM
Week 13
Proj 30-27 · 56%
Our number
Jacksonville State by 3
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Delaware Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

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Jacksonville State Gamecocks stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-4.3

89th in FBS

Adj. offense

23.9

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

28.2

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	26.9	81 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	19.9	33 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.67	27 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.46	60 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	154.9	94 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	248.0	46 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	162.6	84 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	190.3	44 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.86	62 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.86	72 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.57	103 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.00	18 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.18	27 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.11	104 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	47.0%	30 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	41.8%	77 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.8%	40 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.5%	68 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	14.7%	61 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.9%	88 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.12	68 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.48	40 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 29	94 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 29	62 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	60.4	118 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.08	69 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.28	17 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.13	118 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.08	85 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	46.6%	46 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	48.7%	22 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	17.9%	83 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	35.1%	34 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	28.5%	53 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	45.7%	34 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	47.4%	129 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	49.5%	121 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	56.0%	50 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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