Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jacksonville State 34.8, Middle Tennessee 20.5 at AmFirst Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Jacksonville State wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.3 points and 55.2 combined points.
Middle Tennessee is 2-1, scoring 30.3 and allowing 20.7 points per game (+9.6 per game). Jacksonville State is 2-2, scoring 28.5 and allowing 24 points per game (+4.5 per game).
Jacksonville State's below-average defense (88th) should limit Middle Tennessee's struggling offense (126th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Jacksonville State's middle-of-the-pack offense (80th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) against Middle Tennessee's struggling defense (122nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Middle Tennessee by 8 and Jacksonville State by 37 about 80% of the time.
Jacksonville State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jacksonville State by about 12.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Middle Tennessee 13, Jacksonville State 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.3 points and the total by 19.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Middle Tennessee / Jacksonville State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Jacksonville State -9 → Jacksonville State -7 | 53.25 → 51 | +250 / -312.5 |
| DraftKings | Jacksonville State -9.5 → Jacksonville State -7 | 54.5 → 50.5 | +230 / -285 |
| Bovada | Jacksonville State -8.5 → Jacksonville State -7 | 52 → 51.5 | +270 / -340 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Jacksonville State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Jacksonville State -14.5 | 55.2 | 83% |
| Market consensus | Jacksonville State -7 | 51.0 | 73% |
| Blended projection | Jacksonville State -8 | 52.0 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Jacksonville State win probability
- model 83% · market (no-vig) 73% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Jacksonville State -14.3 · market Jacksonville State -7 · difference +7.3 pts (Jacksonville State view)
- Total
- model 55.2 · market 51 · difference +4.2
Model margin is 7.3 pts more toward Jacksonville State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Middle Tennessee 20.5, Jacksonville State 34.8 | Jacksonville State 83%right winner | 4.3 | 19.2 |
| New formula | Middle Tennessee 20.5, Jacksonville State 34.0 | Jacksonville State 81%right winner | 3.4 | 18.5 |
Final: Middle Tennessee 13, Jacksonville State 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.3#76 | 28.5#87 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.7#62 | 24.0#83 |
| Yards per play | 6.18#77 | 6.32#67 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.41#71 | 5.18#60 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.7#91 | 136.3#110 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.0#79 | 227.3#72 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.3#59 | 197.5#121 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 167.3#41 | 139.0#16 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#33 | 0.50#46 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#64 | 1.00#65 |
| Sacks per game | 0.33#134 | 1.50#95 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#23 | 1.00#48 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#91 | +0.21#26 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#85 | +0.08#92 |
| Success rate | 40.3%#108 | 46.1%#39 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5%#90 | 43.2%#102 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0%#109 | 12.3%#88 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#72 | 10.6%#50 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9%#110 | 12.8%#98 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0%#32 | 14.2%#99 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.87#97 | 4.39#57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.38#106 | 3.32#32 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#80 | own 29#94 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#72 | own 30#90 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.7#108 | 57.5#123 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#84 | +0.07#77 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#91 | +0.38#12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#92 | +0.17#121 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#84 | -0.05#42 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3%#80 | 44.1%#82 |
| Passing success rate | 42.7%#80 | 48.4%#40 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2%#47 | 19.5%#105 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.6%#72 | 37.5%#27 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.4%#64 | 29.0%#70 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.4%#126 | 50.0%#32 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.4%#42 | 47.5%#121 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.6%#92 | 53.8%#114 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.9%#107 | 60.0%#72 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Middle Tennessee schedule · Jacksonville State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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