Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jacksonville State 30, Delaware 27 at Delaware Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Jacksonville State wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 57.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Jacksonville State is 6-2 against the 111th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.9 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+7 per game). Delaware is 4-4 against the 126th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.1 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+1.6 per game).
Jacksonville State's below-average offense (95th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Delaware's struggling defense (125th); that mismatch is where most of Jacksonville State's projected points come from. Delaware's below-average offense (84th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) meets Jacksonville State's middle-of-the-pack defense (82nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Delaware puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jacksonville State by 25 and Delaware by 20 about 80% of the time.
Delaware gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Jacksonville State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jacksonville State vs Delaware: stat comparison
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.9#81 | 29.1#66 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.9#33 | 27.5#100 |
| Yards per play | 6.67#27 | 5.98#69 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46#60 | 6.10#100 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.9#94 | 129.1#121 |
| Net passing yards per game | 248.0#46 | 259.9#34 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 162.6#84 | 143.0#54 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.3#44 | 266.9#130 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#62 | 1.14#107 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#72 | 0.86#70 |
| Sacks per game | 1.57#103 | 2.57#27 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#18 | 3.00#130 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#27 | +0.11#56 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#104 | +0.09#96 |
| Success rate | 47.0%#30 | 41.7%#88 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8%#77 | 43.6%#101 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#40 | 13.2%#59 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#68 | 13.1%#100 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#61 | 14.8%#50 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#88 | 15.2%#112 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.12#68 | 4.13#65 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.48#40 | 3.57#46 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#94 | own 32#37 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#62 | own 29#68 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.4#118 | 65.0#76 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#69 | +0.05#87 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#17 | +0.15#45 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#118 | +0.07#85 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#85 | +0.11#91 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6%#46 | 42.1%#90 |
| Passing success rate | 48.7%#22 | 42.6%#62 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9%#83 | 19.5%#105 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.1%#34 | 32.0%#60 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5%#53 | 32.0%#103 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7%#34 | 34.8%#117 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.4%#129 | 37.4%#53 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.5%#121 | 55.7%#101 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.0%#50 | 67.5%#109 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Jacksonville State schedule · Delaware schedule · all Week 13 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.