Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jacksonville State 28, New Mexico State 24.9 at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Jacksonville State wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 52.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Jacksonville State is 5-2, scoring 27.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+4.6 per game). New Mexico State is 3-4, scoring 24.6 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-0.8 per game).
Jacksonville State's below-average offense (95th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over New Mexico State's below-average defense (110th); that mismatch is where most of Jacksonville State's projected points come from. Expect New Mexico State to find it hard going: Jacksonville State's middle-of-the-pack defense (82nd) outranks New Mexico State's struggling offense (125th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jacksonville State by 26 and New Mexico State by 19 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Jacksonville State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Jacksonville State 24, New Mexico State 0. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.9 points and the total by 28.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Jacksonville State / New Mexico State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Jacksonville State -3 | 50.5 | -155 / +129 |
| Opening line | Jacksonville State -3.5 | 48.5 | -176 / +146 |
| DraftKings | Jacksonville State -3 | 50.5 | -155 / +130 |
| FanDuel | Jacksonville State -3.5 | 50.5 | -150 / +126 |
| BetRivers | Jacksonville State -3 | 50.5 | -155 / +123 |
| BetMGM | Jacksonville State -3 | 49.5 | -160 / +130 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Mexico State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Jacksonville State -3 | 52.9 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Jacksonville State -3 | 50.5 | 41% |
| Blended projection | Jacksonville State -3 | 51.4 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Mexico State win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 41% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Jacksonville State -3.1 · market Jacksonville State -3 · difference -0.1 pts (New Mexico State view)
- Total
- model 52.9 · market 50.5 · difference +2.4
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Jacksonville State 28.0, New Mexico State 24.9 | Jacksonville State 58%right winner | 20.9 | 28.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Jacksonville State 24, New Mexico State 0. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Jacksonville State | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.1#64 | 21.6#112 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.2#71 | 27.6#88 |
| Yards per play | 5.99#60 | 5.16#122 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.04#95 | 5.80#67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 250.1#6 | 105.4#135 |
| Net passing yards per game | 157.1#122 | 262.8#27 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.9#64 | 181.8#93 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.8#102 | 241.6#109 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#20 | 1.25#101 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64#8 | 1.42#27 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#79 | 1.42#110 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#46 | 2.75#121 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#73 | -0.05#114 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#56 | -0.04#41 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#67 | 37.8%#119 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8%#73 | 42.7%#82 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#49 | 10.9%#118 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#85 | 11.3%#42 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#25 | 11.8%#90 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#70 | 15.4%#125 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.95#72 | 3.38#122 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.02#88 | 3.80#62 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#79 | own 29#90 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#36 | own 31#103 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#47 | 71.4#16 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#32 | -0.09#123 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#105 | -0.03#97 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#75 | -0.10#16 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#47 | +0.03#78 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7%#37 | 33.5%#135 |
| Passing success rate | 39.0%#96 | 40.0%#85 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#79 | 22.4%#125 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9%#68 | 28.2%#90 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1%#79 | 28.6%#54 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.7%#85 | 43.7%#40 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.6%#56 | 42.0%#87 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.9%#102 | 50.8%#120 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.9%#119 | 58.7%#57 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Jacksonville State schedule · New Mexico State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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