Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jacksonville State 25.9, Kennesaw State 24 at Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Jacksonville State wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 49.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Jacksonville State is 3-2, scoring 27.4 and allowing 21.8 points per game (+5.6 per game). Kennesaw State is 1-3, scoring 21.8 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Jacksonville State's below-average offense (92nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.7 points against an average defense) meets Kennesaw State's below-average defense (93rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jacksonville State puts up. Expect Kennesaw State to find it hard going: Jacksonville State's below-average defense (95th) outranks Kennesaw State's below-average offense (115th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jacksonville State by 24 and Kennesaw State by 21 about 80% of the time.
Kennesaw State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Jacksonville State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Jacksonville State 27, Kennesaw State 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.9 points and the total by 3.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Jacksonville State / Kennesaw State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Jacksonville State -2.75 → Jacksonville State -3 | 49.25 → 48.75 | -156.5 / +132 |
| DraftKings | Jacksonville State -2.5 → Jacksonville State -3 | 48.5 | -148 / +124 |
| Bovada | Jacksonville State -3 | 50 → 49 | -165 / +140 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kennesaw State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Jacksonville State -2 | 49.8 | 45% |
| Market consensus | Jacksonville State -3 | 48.8 | 41% |
| Blended projection | Jacksonville State -3 | 49.7 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kennesaw State win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 41% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Jacksonville State -1.9 · market Jacksonville State -3 · difference +1.1 pts (Kennesaw State view)
- Total
- model 49.8 · market 48.75 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward Kennesaw State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Jacksonville State 25.9, Kennesaw State 24.0 | Jacksonville State 55%right winner | 0.9 | 3.2 |
| New formula | Jacksonville State 25.3, Kennesaw State 24.2 | Jacksonville State 53%right winner | 0.1 | 3.5 |
Final: Jacksonville State 27, Kennesaw State 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.4#80 | 21.8#110 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.8#57 | 22.5#61 |
| Yards per play | 6.84#32 | 5.79#93 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.19#45 | 5.91#99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.8#74 | 176.0#64 |
| Net passing yards per game | 240.4#58 | 201.8#92 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.2#108 | 169.5#93 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 149.8#11 | 191.0#53 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80#69 | 0.50#38 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#82 | 0.25#132 |
| Sacks per game | 1.80#82 | 1.00#125 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#30 | 1.00#27 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#32 | +0.12#56 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#89 | +0.10#100 |
| Success rate | 47.4%#33 | 46.0%#40 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.4%#91 | 46.4%#125 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3%#61 | 11.0%#108 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#73 | 13.0%#100 |
| Havoc rate | 14.1%#72 | 9.2%#135 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#78 | 9.5%#8 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.82#92 | 4.41#52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.37#29 | 4.15#93 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#91 | own 27#121 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#64 | own 28#62 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.2#119 | 65.3#70 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#71 | +0.24#7 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.29#23 | +0.01#98 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#115 | +0.03#65 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#58 | +0.18#108 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.7%#43 | 51.0%#14 |
| Passing success rate | 50.4%#20 | 41.0%#86 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.4%#64 | 19.4%#106 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.9%#41 | 31.7%#71 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.2%#46 | 32.8%#104 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.4%#36 | 44.9%#52 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.7%#120 | 31.9%#27 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.4%#124 | 61.5%#83 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.7%#78 | 90.0%#137 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Jacksonville State schedule · Kennesaw State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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