Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jacksonville State 25.6, Florida International 20.1 at AmFirst Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Jacksonville State wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 45.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Florida International is 3-2, scoring 18.8 and allowing 12.2 points per game (+6.6 per game). Jacksonville State is 4-2, scoring 27.3 and allowing 22.5 points per game (+4.8 per game).
Jacksonville State's below-average defense (94th) should limit Florida International's struggling offense (128th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.6 points against an average defense). Expect Jacksonville State to find it hard going: Florida International's middle-of-the-pack defense (64th) outranks Jacksonville State's below-average offense (86th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida International by 17 and Jacksonville State by 28 about 80% of the time.
Jacksonville State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jacksonville State by about 3.4. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Florida International 24, Jacksonville State 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.5 points and the total by 5.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida International / Jacksonville State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Jacksonville State -3 | 45.5 → 44.25 | +120 / -141 |
| DraftKings | Jacksonville State -3 | 45.5 → 44.5 | +120 / -142 |
| Bovada | Jacksonville State -3 | 45.5 → 44 | +120 / -140 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Jacksonville State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Jacksonville State -5.5 | 45.7 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Jacksonville State -3 | 44.3 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Jacksonville State -3.5 | 45.6 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Jacksonville State win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Jacksonville State -5.5 · market Jacksonville State -3 · difference +2.5 pts (Jacksonville State view)
- Total
- model 45.7 · market 44.25 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 2.5 pts more toward Jacksonville State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida International 20.1, Jacksonville State 25.6 | Jacksonville State 64%right winner | 2.5 | 5.3 |
| New formula | Florida International 19.3, Jacksonville State 24.7 | Jacksonville State 64%right winner | 2.4 | 6.9 |
Final: Florida International 24, Jacksonville State 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida International vs Jacksonville State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Florida International | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8#121 | 27.3#82 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.2#6 | 22.5#62 |
| Yards per play | 5.40#115 | 6.57#39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.11#1 | 5.44#61 |
| Rushing yards per game | 126.8#120 | 150.7#94 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.6#42 | 253.7#45 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 99.2#9 | 167.7#93 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 148.8#10 | 176.0#31 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40#130 | 0.83#68 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.20#38 | 1.00#58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.60#30 | 1.67#94 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.20#40 | 1.00#26 |
| Stat | Florida International | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#124 | +0.18#30 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#20 | +0.07#85 |
| Success rate | 39.3%#115 | 47.2%#37 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.8%#25 | 41.3%#75 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#89 | 12.6%#77 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#21 | 11.8%#74 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#52 | 14.7%#53 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5%#81 | 13.6%#84 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.86#133 | 4.08#74 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.75#4 | 3.47#43 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#50 | own 28#101 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#117 | own 28#52 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.8#21 | 61.5#110 |
| Stat | Florida International | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08#126 | +0.08#70 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#109 | +0.29#21 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#35 | +0.10#103 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#29 | +0.03#67 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.5%#130 | 46.9%#49 |
| Passing success rate | 42.8%#70 | 49.4%#26 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2%#111 | 17.2%#70 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7%#81 | 35.5%#35 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.6%#15 | 28.3%#62 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0%#36 | 47.9%#30 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.8%#7 | 45.7%#120 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 30.9%#138 | 47.9%#125 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 31.3%#1 | 56.3%#57 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida International schedule · Jacksonville State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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