Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Dakota State 31.7, Jacksonville State 22.7 at Fargodome in Week 1. That is a solid edge: North Dakota State wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9 points and 54.4 combined points.
Jacksonville State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. North Dakota State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect Jacksonville State to find it hard going: North Dakota State's strong defense (26th) outranks Jacksonville State's below-average offense (95th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense). North Dakota State's middle-of-the-pack offense (72nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Jacksonville State's below-average defense (97th); that mismatch is where most of North Dakota State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jacksonville State by 14 and North Dakota State by 32 about 80% of the time.
North Dakota State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Dakota State by about 6.9. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Jacksonville State 7, North Dakota State 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17 points and the total by 14.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Jacksonville State / North Dakota State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota State -10 → North Dakota State -6.75 | 48.5 → 46.5 | +240 / -297.5 |
| Bovada | North Dakota State -10 → North Dakota State -7 | 48.5 → 46.5 | +265 / -330 |
| DraftKings | North Dakota State -10 → North Dakota State -6.5 | 46.5 | +215 / -265 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Dakota State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota State -9 | 54.4 | 72% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota State -7 | 46.5 | 72% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota State -7 | 48.0 | 69% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Dakota State win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 72% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model North Dakota State -9 · market North Dakota State -6.75 · difference +2.3 pts (North Dakota State view)
- Total
- model 54.4 · market 46.5 · difference +7.9
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward North Dakota State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Jacksonville State 22.7, North Dakota State 31.7 | North Dakota State 72%right winner | 17.0 | 14.4 |
| New formula | Jacksonville State 16.7, North Dakota State 39.1 | North Dakota State 90%right winner | 3.6 | 15.8 |
Final: Jacksonville State 7, North Dakota State 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Jacksonville State vs North Dakota State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Jacksonville State | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.1#64 | 41.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.2#71 | 13.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.99#60 | 7.32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.04#95 | 4.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 250.1#6 | 233.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 157.1#122 | 245.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.9#64 | 142.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.8#102 | 156.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#20 | 0.54 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64#8 | 2.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#79 | 2.31 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#46 | 1.54 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#73 | +0.20 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#56 | -0.12 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#67 | 49.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8%#73 | 34.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#49 | 16.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#85 | 7.8% |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#25 | 14.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#70 | 9.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.95#72 | 3.38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.02#88 | 2.56 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#79 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#36 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#47 | 65.4 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#32 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#105 | +0.28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#75 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#47 | -0.23 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7%#37 | 50.4% |
| Passing success rate | 39.0%#96 | 53.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#79 | 17.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9%#68 | 40.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1%#79 | 23.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.7%#85 | 48.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.6%#56 | 31.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.9%#102 | 53.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.9%#119 | 47.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Jacksonville State schedule · North Dakota State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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