2026 schedule

North Dakota State Bison

6-2SOS #123

2026 season so far

North Dakota State is 6-2 against the 123rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.8 and allowing 12.5 points per game (+15.3 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings North Dakota State ranks 41st of 139 FBS teams overall — 70th on offense and 25th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs UTEP in Week 9. We project North Dakota State 39, UTEP 6 — North Dakota State wins 98% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
0-1 · SOS #119
Win 33-7
Week 1
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 9
Total 54.4
DraftKings
NDSU -6.5
Total 46.5
Final North Dakota State by 26. North Dakota State beat the spread. 40 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -6.75 (open North Dakota State -10) · O/U 46.5 (open 48.5) · ML +240 / -297.5 · North Dakota State 72% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +1 pct pts (North Dakota State view)
CBSSN Fargodome
vs
Fordham Rams
0-2 · SOS #48
Win 38-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 42
Total 52
DraftKings
NDSU -41.5
Total 54.5
Final North Dakota State by 38. Fordham beat the spread. 38 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -41.5 (open North Dakota State -40.5) · O/U 54.25 (open 56.75) · model vs market +0.5 pts (North Dakota State view)
MW+ Fargodome
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Air Force Falcons
1-1 · SOS #105
Win 38-32
Week 2
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 2.8
Total 51.6
DraftKings
NDSU -1.5
Total 48.5
Final North Dakota State by 6. North Dakota State beat the spread. 70 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -1.75 (open North Dakota State -5) · O/U 48.5 · ML -145 / +122.5 · Air Force 43% no-vig · model vs market -1.1 pts, -1 pct pts (Air Force view)
FS1 Falcon Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit
at
Sacramento State Hornets
1-3 · SOS #136
Win 31-10
Week 3
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 10.3
Total 53.1
DraftKings
NDSU -26.5
Total 50.5
Final North Dakota State by 21. Sacramento State beat the spread. 41 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -25.5 (open North Dakota State -25.75) · O/U 50.5 (open 53.25) · ML -6000 / +1550 · Sacramento State 6% no-vig · model vs market +15.2 pts, +19 pct pts (Sacramento State view)
ESPN Hornet Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Curtis RB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 34) · 78% · -7 ✓
vs
Wyoming Cowboys
2-3 · SOS #130
Win 28-0
Week 5
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 23.6
Total 43.6
DraftKings
NDSU -17.5
Total 44.5
Final North Dakota State by 28. North Dakota State beat the spread. 28 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -17.25 (open North Dakota State -20.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 46.75) · ML +687.5 / -1175 · North Dakota State 88% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +6 pct pts (North Dakota State view)
Indoors (dome).
CW Fargodome
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · S. Harris RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 57) · 78% · 31 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Hughes QB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 40) · 78% · 25 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. Holman RB · Low rush yds 48 (avg 55) · 78% · 41 ✓
at
UNLV Rebels
4-2 · SOS #82
Loss 7-13
Week 6
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 8.4
Total 50.4
DraftKings
NDSU -3
Total 47.5
Final UNLV by 6. UNLV beat the spread. 20 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -2.75 (open North Dakota State -3) · O/U 47.5 (open 48.5) · ML -145 / +122.5 · UNLV 43% no-vig · model vs market -5.6 pts, -14 pct pts (UNLV view)
Indoors (dome).
CW Allegiant Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
T. Reddicks WR · Low rec yds 47 (avg 68) · 74% · 8 ✓J. Arnold QB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 54) · 70% · 60 ✗
vs
Nevada Wolf Pack
2-4 · SOS #112
Win 31-17
Week 7
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 18.1
Total 46.3
DraftKings
NDSU -14.5
Total 42.5
Final North Dakota State by 14. Nevada beat the spread. 48 points — over the 42.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -14.25 (open North Dakota State -15) · O/U 42.75 (open 46.25) · ML +500 / -725 · North Dakota State 84% no-vig · model vs market +3.9 pts, +4 pct pts (North Dakota State view)
Indoors (dome).
CBSSN Fargodome
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · H. Turner RB · Low rush yds 68 (avg 85) · 78% · 10 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. Kelley RB · Low rush yds 71 (avg 88) · 78% · 60 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Jones QB · Low rush yds 16 (avg 14) · 78% · did not play
at
New Mexico Lobos
6-1 · SOS #129
Loss 16-21
Week 8
Our number· pregame
New Mexico by 4
Total 45.8
DraftKings
UNM -4.5
Total 39.5
Final New Mexico by 5. New Mexico beat the spread. 37 points — under the 39.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Mexico -4.5 · O/U 39.5 · ML +164 / -200 · New Mexico 63% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -3 pct pts (New Mexico view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 61°F, Wind 3 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABQ)
CW University Stadium (NM)
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game Defensive bounce-back favStudy · Lean Favorite covers: Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game: Record 170 hits, 113 misses (60% hit rate) over 283 graded gamesUnderdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game: hit (n=283) · Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank
N. Hayes QB · Low pass yds 142 (avg 182) · 70% · 198 ✗
vs
UTEP Miners
1-6 · SOS #76
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 39-6 · 98%
Our number
North Dakota State by 33
Total 45
DraftKings
NDSU -25.5
Total 43.5
We're 7.5 points higher on North Dakota State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -25.5 · O/U 43.5 · ML +1420 / -3253 · North Dakota State 93% no-vig · model vs market +7.5 pts, +5 pct pts (North Dakota State view)
Indoors (dome).
MW+ Fargodome
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded games (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14 Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · E. Colson Jr. QB · Low rush yds 18 (avg 18) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · R. Moore III QB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 59) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 44) · 78%
at
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
2-6 · SOS #100
Sun, Nov 15, 4:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 30-16 · 82%
Our number
North Dakota State by 14
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. Rice RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 48) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Barfield RB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 25) · 78%
vs
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-7 · SOS #59
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 37-11 · 96%
Our number
North Dakota State by 26
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW Fargodome
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Dickens QB · Low rush yds 7 (avg 2) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Johnson Jr. RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 72) · 78%N. Hayes QB · High pass yds 208 (avg 184) · 55%
at
San José State Spartans
4-4 · SOS #121
Fri, Nov 27, 8:30 PM
Week 13
Proj 29-15 · 83%
Our number
North Dakota State by 14
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN CEFCU Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · L. Weaver QB · Low rush yds 13 (avg 11) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Bates RB · Low rush yds 78 (avg 84) · 78%

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North Dakota State Bison stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+5.6

41st in FBS

Adj. offense

26.3

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

20.7

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	27.8	77 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	12.5	3 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.80	89 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	4.91	19 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	168.8	66 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	204.9	88 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	136.4	44 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	143.1	5 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.00	89 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.50	11 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.63	101 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.38	42 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	-0.01	118 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.07	18 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	40.6%	101 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	35.9%	21 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.5%	51 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.9%	74 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	16.0%	24 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.9%	87 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.88	91 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	2.73	3 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 30	75 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 29	70 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	64.4	83 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.06	124 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.05	83 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.04	33 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.12	17 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	38.7%	115 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	41.0%	77 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	22.3%	132 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	31.4%	67 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	21.4%	4 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	43.4%	52 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	37.3%	52 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	59.0%	86 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	48.4%	29 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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