Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Dakota State 30, Hawai'i 16 at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Week 11. That is a solid edge: North Dakota State wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14 points and 45.7 combined points.
North Dakota State is 6-2 against the 117th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.8 and allowing 12.5 points per game (+15.3 per game). Hawai'i is 2-6 against the 93rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.8 and allowing 24.5 points per game (-3.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: North Dakota State's middle-of-the-pack offense (70th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense) against Hawai'i's below-average defense (102nd). North Dakota State's strong defense (25th) should limit Hawai'i's below-average offense (117th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota State by 37 and Hawai'i by 9 about 80% of the time.
Hawai'i gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Dakota State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CW.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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North Dakota State vs Hawai'i: stat comparison
| Stat | North Dakota State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8#77 | 20.8#117 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.5#3 | 24.5#72 |
| Yards per play | 5.80#89 | 5.29#121 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.91#19 | 6.20#108 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.8#66 | 103.9#137 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.9#88 | 269.9#23 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 136.4#44 | 174.5#97 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 143.1#5 | 200.9#56 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#89 | 0.75#53 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#11 | 0.75#86 |
| Sacks per game | 1.63#101 | 1.25#120 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#42 | 2.50#114 |
| Stat | North Dakota State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#118 | +0.07#78 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#18 | +0.13#116 |
| Success rate | 40.6%#101 | 41.9%#82 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.9%#21 | 44.1%#105 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#51 | 11.1%#114 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#74 | 12.7%#88 |
| Havoc rate | 16.0%#24 | 12.2%#113 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#87 | 14.3%#99 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.88#91 | 3.56#109 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.73#3 | 4.43#115 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#75 | own 27#117 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#70 | own 26#26 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.4#83 | 70.6#17 |
| Stat | North Dakota State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06#124 | +0.03#93 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#83 | +0.10#69 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#33 | +0.08#91 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#17 | +0.19#116 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7%#115 | 45.9%#52 |
| Passing success rate | 41.0%#77 | 39.3%#95 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.3%#132 | 18.5%#92 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#67 | 27.7%#108 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.4%#4 | 32.0%#104 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.4%#52 | 40.0%#82 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.3%#52 | 39.8%#82 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.0%#86 | 45.7%#131 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.4%#29 | 71.4%#123 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Dakota State schedule · Hawai'i schedule · all Week 11 projections
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