Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Dakota State 47, Fordham 5 at Fargodome in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: North Dakota State wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 42 points and 52 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Fordham is 0-1, scoring 14 and allowing 24 points per game (-10 per game). North Dakota State is 1-0, scoring 33 and allowing 7 points per game (+26 per game).
Fordham plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why North Dakota State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota State by 19 and North Dakota State by 65 about 80% of the time.
North Dakota State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Dakota State by about 39.9. The game is on MW+.
Result: Fordham 0, North Dakota State 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4 points and the total by 14.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Fordham / North Dakota State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota State -40.5 → North Dakota State -41.5 | 56.75 → 54.25 | — / — |
| Bovada | North Dakota State -41.5 | 56 → 54 | — / — |
| DraftKings | North Dakota State -39.5 → North Dakota State -41.5 | 57.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Dakota State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota State -42 | 52.0 | 100% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota State -41.5 | 54.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota State -42 | 54.6 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Dakota State win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model North Dakota State -42 · market North Dakota State -41.5 · difference +0.5 pts (North Dakota State view)
- Total
- model 52.0 · market 54.25 · difference -2.2
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward North Dakota State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Fordham 5.0, North Dakota State 47.0 | North Dakota State 100%right winner | 4.0 | 14.0 |
| New formula | Fordham -0.2, North Dakota State 51.0 | North Dakota State 100%right winner | 13.2 | 12.7 |
Final: Fordham 0, North Dakota State 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Fordham vs North Dakota State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Fordham | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.9 | 41.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.1 | 13.0 |
| Yards per play | 4.85 | 7.32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.72 | 4.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 112.8 | 233.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.3 | 245.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.4 | 142.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 289.4 | 156.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 0.54 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58 | 2.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 2.31 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.33 | 1.54 |
| Stat | Fordham | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.20 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | -0.12 |
| Success rate | 35.5% | 49.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 34.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 16.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2% | 7.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 14.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.1% | 9.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.78 | 3.38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.74 | 2.56 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.2 | 65.4 |
| Stat | Fordham | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.24 | +0.28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.17 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19 | -0.23 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.8% | 50.4% |
| Passing success rate | 33.7% | 53.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9% | 17.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.5% | 40.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7% | 23.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.6% | 48.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.7% | 31.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.9% | 53.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.3% | 47.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Fordham schedule · North Dakota State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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