Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Dakota State 32.2, Nevada 14.1 at Fargodome in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: North Dakota State wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.1 points and 46.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans low scoring.
Nevada is 2-3, scoring 27.8 and allowing 22 points per game (+5.8 per game). North Dakota State is 5-1, scoring 29.2 and allowing 10.3 points per game (+18.9 per game).
Expect Nevada to find it hard going: North Dakota State's strong defense (21st) outranks Nevada's below-average offense (105th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). North Dakota State's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Nevada's below-average defense (96th); that mismatch is where most of North Dakota State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nevada by 4 and North Dakota State by 41 about 80% of the time.
North Dakota State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Dakota State by about 16. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Nevada 17, North Dakota State 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.1 points and the total by 1.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Nevada / North Dakota State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota State -15 → North Dakota State -14.25 | 46.25 → 42.75 | +500 / -725 |
| DraftKings | North Dakota State -14.5 | 46.5 → 42.5 | +500 / -700 |
| Bovada | North Dakota State -15.5 → North Dakota State -14 | 46 → 43 | +500 / -750 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Dakota State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota State -18 | 46.2 | 88% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota State -14.5 | 42.8 | 84% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota State -15 | 44.3 | 85% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Dakota State win probability
- model 88% · market (no-vig) 84% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model North Dakota State -18.1 · market North Dakota State -14.25 · difference +3.9 pts (North Dakota State view)
- Total
- model 46.2 · market 42.75 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward North Dakota State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Nevada 14.1, North Dakota State 32.2 | North Dakota State 88%right winner | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| New formula | Nevada 14.1, North Dakota State 31.0 | North Dakota State 87%right winner | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Final: Nevada 17, North Dakota State 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Nevada vs North Dakota State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Nevada | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8#78 | 29.2#70 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0#58 | 10.3#2 |
| Yards per play | 5.95#82 | 6.04#76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.93#25 | 4.86#21 |
| Rushing yards per game | 223.0#27 | 181.7#58 |
| Net passing yards per game | 161.6#125 | 203.7#89 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.4#120 | 133.2#44 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 144.6#8 | 142.5#6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.80#135 | 1.00#85 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60#109 | 1.50#16 |
| Sacks per game | 2.40#39 | 1.83#79 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.40#50 | 1.50#55 |
| Stat | Nevada | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#107 | +0.02#104 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#73 | -0.06#22 |
| Success rate | 40.7%#101 | 41.8%#87 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.6%#42 | 37.2%#29 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6%#102 | 14.2%#38 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8%#43 | 11.0%#51 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0%#74 | 15.1%#40 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#98 | 14.0%#96 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.30#57 | 3.97#84 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.32#109 | 3.05#13 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#74 | own 29#89 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#116 | own 28#45 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6#81 | 63.8#90 |
| Stat | Nevada | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#37 | -0.02#114 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14#125 | +0.07#80 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#65 | -0.03#40 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#77 | -0.12#20 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.7%#23 | 39.7%#109 |
| Passing success rate | 32.1%#131 | 44.9%#46 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#101 | 21.2%#121 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8%#79 | 32.8%#61 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.6%#74 | 21.1%#7 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.7%#98 | 42.9%#62 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.5%#27 | 37.3%#67 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.1%#83 | 54.4%#106 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.1%#75 | 49.3%#29 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nevada schedule · North Dakota State schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.