Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Dakota State 31.7, Sacramento State 21.4 at Hornet Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: North Dakota State wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.3 points and 53 combined points.
North Dakota State is 3-0, scoring 36.3 and allowing 13 points per game (+23.3 per game). Sacramento State is 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-1.7 per game).
North Dakota State's strong offense (38th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Sacramento State's struggling defense (128th); that mismatch is where most of North Dakota State's projected points come from. Expect Sacramento State to find it hard going: North Dakota State's strong defense (35th) outranks Sacramento State's struggling offense (122nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota State by 33 and Sacramento State by 12 about 80% of the time.
Sacramento State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Dakota State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.7 points and the total by 12.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Dakota State / Sacramento State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota State -25.75 → North Dakota State -25.5 | 53.25 → 50.5 | -6000 / +1550 |
| DraftKings | North Dakota State -23.5 → North Dakota State -26.5 | 53.5 → 50.5 | -5000 / +1800 |
| Bovada | North Dakota State -28 → North Dakota State -24.5 | 53 → 50.5 | -7000 / +1300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sacramento State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota State -10.5 | 53.0 | 25% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota State -25.5 | 50.5 | 6% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota State -23 | 51.4 | 6% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sacramento State win probability
- model 25% · market (no-vig) 6% · difference +19 pts
- Margin
- model North Dakota State -10.3 · market North Dakota State -25.5 · difference +15.2 pts (Sacramento State view)
- Total
- model 53.0 · market 50.5 · difference +2.5
Model margin is 15.2 pts more toward Sacramento State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Dakota State 31.7, Sacramento State 21.4 | North Dakota State 75%right winner | 10.7 | 12.0 |
| New formula | North Dakota State 35.4, Sacramento State 18.7 | North Dakota State 86%right winner | 4.3 | 13.1 |
Final: North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Dakota State vs Sacramento State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | North Dakota State | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.3#48 | 24.0#101 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.0#34 | 25.7#95 |
| Yards per play | 6.24#70 | 5.09#121 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.05#59 | 5.93#106 |
| Rushing yards per game | 170.0#79 | 135.0#107 |
| Net passing yards per game | 233.7#68 | 201.0#93 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.3#70 | 134.7#75 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 146.7#30 | 223.3#88 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#75 | 1.33#106 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67#20 | 0.67#89 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33#51 | 2.00#66 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#80 | 1.00#50 |
| Stat | North Dakota State | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#81 | -0.04#119 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#81 | -0.01#54 |
| Success rate | 42.4%#82 | 39.4%#103 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#60 | 39.5%#57 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#67 | 9.5%#119 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#64 | 13.0%#105 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2%#104 | 12.8%#95 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#84 | 13.8%#85 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.41#56 | 3.63#108 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.47#46 | 4.06#88 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#54 | own 34#36 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#47 | own 29#84 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7#83 | 66.0#73 |
| Stat | North Dakota State | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#102 | -0.01#103 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#56 | -0.05#112 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#95 | -0.04#49 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#67 | +0.03#74 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.6%#101 | 38.6%#108 |
| Passing success rate | 49.3%#41 | 36.0%#110 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5%#99 | 22.2%#118 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5%#108 | 25.8%#111 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.2%#24 | 23.8%#29 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.5%#71 | 31.7%#123 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%#86 | 30.0%#38 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.5%#94 | 54.1%#107 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.0%#60 | 60.3%#75 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Dakota State schedule · Sacramento State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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