Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Dakota State 27.2, Air Force 24.4 at Falcon Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: North Dakota State wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 51.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
North Dakota State is 2-0, scoring 35.5 and allowing 3.5 points per game (+32 per game). Air Force is 1-0, scoring 34 and allowing 0 points per game (+34 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: North Dakota State's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.2 points against an average defense) against Air Force's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th). North Dakota State's strong defense (25th) should limit Air Force's below-average offense (86th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota State by 25 and Air Force by 20 about 80% of the time.
Air Force gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Dakota State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Result: North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.2 points and the total by 18.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Dakota State / Air Force) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota State -5 → North Dakota State -1.75 | 48.5 | -145 / +122.5 |
| DraftKings | North Dakota State -6.5 → North Dakota State -1.5 | 49.5 → 48.5 | -125 / +105 |
| Bovada | North Dakota State -3.5 → North Dakota State -2 | 47.5 → 48.5 | -165 / +140 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Air Force win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota State -3 | 51.5 | 43% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota State -1.5 | 48.5 | 43% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota State -2 | 49.6 | 45% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Air Force win probability
- model 43% · market (no-vig) 43% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model North Dakota State -2.8 · market North Dakota State -1.75 · difference -1.0 pts (Air Force view)
- Total
- model 51.5 · market 48.5 · difference +3.0
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward North Dakota State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Dakota State 27.2, Air Force 24.4 | North Dakota State 57%right winner | 3.2 | 18.5 |
| New formula | North Dakota State 26.8, Air Force 23.6 | North Dakota State 58%right winner | 2.7 | 19.6 |
Final: North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Dakota State vs Air Force: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Dakota State | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.1 | 29.8#48 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.0 | 30.3#108 |
| Yards per play | 7.32 | 5.79#76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.72 | 7.47#135 |
| Rushing yards per game | 233.2 | 256.3#3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 245.5 | 137.2#129 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 142.1 | 162.5#72 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 156.1 | 268.0#129 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.54 | 0.92#47 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00 | 0.67#120 |
| Sacks per game | 2.31 | 1.25#120 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.54 | 1.33#26 |
| Stat | North Dakota State | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20 | +0.15#16 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.12 | +0.20#135 |
| Success rate | 49.8% | 47.2%#18 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.8% | 48.0%#132 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.3% | 12.1%#76 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.8% | 15.3%#130 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9% | 10.0%#126 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6% | 9.6%#14 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38 | 4.46#22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.56 | 4.16#103 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 29#99 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 29#54 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.4 | 67.9#48 |
| Stat | North Dakota State | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.11#23 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28 | +0.23#9 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.14#132 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.23 | +0.27#134 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.4% | 47.8%#21 |
| Passing success rate | 53.7% | 45.3%#29 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 13.1%#5 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.1% | 33.2%#38 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.0% | 37.9%#135 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.4% | 50.3%#9 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1% | 51.1%#134 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.1% | 71.8%#19 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.8% | 55.7%#41 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Dakota State schedule · Air Force schedule · all Week 2 projections
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