Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Mexico 24.9, North Dakota State 20.9 at University Stadium (NM) in Week 8. That is a lean: New Mexico wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 45.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
North Dakota State is 6-1, scoring 29.4 and allowing 11.3 points per game (+18.1 per game). New Mexico is 5-1, scoring 39.7 and allowing 10.5 points per game (+29.2 per game).
New Mexico's strong defense (34th) should limit North Dakota State's middle-of-the-pack offense (70th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense). Expect New Mexico to find it hard going: North Dakota State's strong defense (25th) outranks New Mexico's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota State by 19 and New Mexico by 27 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour New Mexico by about 1.9. The game is on CW.
Result: North Dakota State 16, New Mexico 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1 points and the total by 8.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Dakota State / New Mexico) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Mexico -4.5 | 39.5 | +164 / -200 |
| Opening line | New Mexico -3.5 | 46.5 | +142 / -170 |
| DraftKings | New Mexico -4.5 | 39.5 | +160 / -192 |
| FanDuel | New Mexico -4.5 | 39.5 | +168 / -205 |
| BetRivers | New Mexico -4.5 | 38.5 | +155 / -200 |
| BetMGM | New Mexico -4.5 | 38.5 | +165 / -200 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Mexico win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Mexico -4 | 45.8 | 60% |
| Market consensus | New Mexico -4.5 | 39.5 | 63% |
| Blended projection | New Mexico -4.5 | 41.5 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Mexico win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 63% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model New Mexico -4 · market New Mexico -4.5 · difference -0.5 pts (New Mexico view)
- Total
- model 45.8 · market 39.5 · difference +6.3
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward North Dakota State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Dakota State 20.9, New Mexico 24.9 | New Mexico 60%right winner | 1.0 | 8.8 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: North Dakota State 16, New Mexico 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Dakota State | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.1 | 27.1#73 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.0 | 22.3#46 |
| Yards per play | 7.32 | 6.06#54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.72 | 5.50#46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 233.2 | 173.7#66 |
| Net passing yards per game | 245.5 | 210.9#89 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 142.1 | 131.8#22 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 156.1 | 234.7#99 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.54 | 1.25#102 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00 | 1.00#77 |
| Sacks per game | 2.31 | 2.67#19 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.54 | 2.50#114 |
| Stat | North Dakota State | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20 | +0.03#71 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.12 | +0.02#77 |
| Success rate | 49.8% | 41.8%#80 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.8% | 39.4%#43 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.3% | 12.7%#61 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.8% | 10.4%#29 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9% | 12.5%#68 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6% | 11.5%#53 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38 | 4.06#56 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.56 | 3.19#13 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 29#91 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 31#96 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.4 | 63.4#107 |
| Stat | North Dakota State | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.02#73 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28 | +0.03#69 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.04#39 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.23 | +0.08#99 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.4% | 42.9%#72 |
| Passing success rate | 53.7% | 40.8%#72 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 14.5%#18 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.1% | 30.7%#72 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.0% | 27.6%#37 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.4% | 39.3%#91 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1% | 41.7%#83 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.1% | 58.7%#85 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.8% | 60.6%#73 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Dakota State schedule · New Mexico schedule · all Week 8 projections
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