Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Dakota State 37, Northern Illinois 11 at Fargodome in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: North Dakota State wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 26.9 points and 48 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Northern Illinois is 0-7 against the 55th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 38.6 points per game (-23.5 per game). North Dakota State is 6-2 against the 117th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.8 and allowing 12.5 points per game (+15.3 per game).
North Dakota State's strong defense (25th) should limit Northern Illinois's struggling offense (129th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: North Dakota State's middle-of-the-pack offense (70th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense) against Northern Illinois's struggling defense (134th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota State by 4 and North Dakota State by 49 about 80% of the time.
North Dakota State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Dakota State by about 24.8. The game is on CW.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Northern Illinois vs North Dakota State: stat comparison
| Stat | Northern Illinois | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.1#135 | 27.8#77 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.6#136 | 12.5#3 |
| Yards per play | 5.21#125 | 5.80#89 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.69#131 | 4.91#19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.6#132 | 168.8#66 |
| Net passing yards per game | 198.0#96 | 204.9#88 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 229.1#135 | 136.4#44 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 215.0#86 | 143.1#5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#67 | 1.00#89 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#60 | 1.50#11 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#127 | 1.63#101 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.29#134 | 1.38#42 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#89 | -0.01#118 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#128 | -0.07#18 |
| Success rate | 37.8%#126 | 40.6%#101 |
| Success rate allowed | 53.2%#137 | 35.9%#21 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#108 | 13.5%#51 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#124 | 11.9%#74 |
| Havoc rate | 9.7%#137 | 16.0%#24 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4%#103 | 13.9%#87 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.97#130 | 3.88#91 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.86#134 | 2.73#3 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#128 | own 30#75 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#109 | own 29#70 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.1#121 | 64.4#83 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#42 | -0.06#124 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#106 | +0.05#83 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16#128 | -0.04#33 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#126 | -0.12#17 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8%#93 | 38.7%#115 |
| Passing success rate | 35.0%#125 | 41.0%#77 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9%#97 | 22.3%#132 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.5%#132 | 31.4%#67 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 42.6%#137 | 21.4%#4 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.0%#126 | 43.4%#52 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 61.5%#138 | 37.3%#52 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.1%#129 | 59.0%#86 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.9%#132 | 48.4%#29 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Illinois schedule · North Dakota State schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.