Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Dakota State 39, UTEP 6 at Fargodome in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: North Dakota State wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 32.5 points and 45.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
UTEP is 1-6 against the 76th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-22.2 per game). North Dakota State is 6-2 against the 123rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.8 and allowing 12.5 points per game (+15.3 per game).
Expect UTEP to find it hard going: North Dakota State's strong defense (25th) outranks UTEP's struggling offense (138th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 13.6 points against an average defense). North Dakota State's middle-of-the-pack offense (70th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UTEP's struggling defense (138th); that mismatch is where most of North Dakota State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota State by 10 and North Dakota State by 55 about 80% of the time.
North Dakota State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Dakota State by about 30.4. The game is on MW+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UTEP / North Dakota State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota State -25.5 | 43.5 | +1420 / -3253 |
| DraftKings | North Dakota State -25.5 | 43.5 | +1400 / -3200 |
| FanDuel | North Dakota State -25.5 | 43.5 | +1280 / -3000 |
| BetMGM | North Dakota State -25 | 43.5 | +1500 / -3000 |
| theScore Bet | North Dakota State -25.5 | 43.5 | +1500 / -5000 |
| Pinnacle | North Dakota State -26 | 44.5 | +1440 / -3306 |
| Bovada | North Dakota State -25.5 | 44 | +1200 / -4000 |
| BetRivers | North Dakota State -25.5 | 43.5 | — / — |
| Hard Rock Bet | North Dakota State -25.5 | 43.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Dakota State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota State -32.5 | 45.4 | 98% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota State -25.5 | 43.5 | 93% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota State -27 | 44.9 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Dakota State win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model North Dakota State -32.5 · market North Dakota State -25.5 · difference +7.0 pts (North Dakota State view)
- Total
- model 45.4 · market 43.5 · difference +1.9
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies North Dakota State 95%.
Model margin is 7.0 pts more toward North Dakota State than the market.
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UTEP vs North Dakota State: stat comparison
| Stat | UTEP | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.1#136 | 27.8#77 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.3#134 | 12.5#3 |
| Yards per play | 5.41#118 | 5.80#89 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.48#122 | 4.91#19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.4#77 | 168.8#66 |
| Net passing yards per game | 149.4#129 | 204.9#88 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.7#124 | 136.4#44 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.6#60 | 143.1#5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#109 | 1.00#89 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#80 | 1.50#11 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#128 | 1.63#101 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 5.00#138 | 1.38#42 |
| Stat | UTEP | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11#137 | -0.01#118 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17#122 | -0.07#18 |
| Success rate | 35.2%#135 | 40.6%#101 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.1%#134 | 35.9%#21 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#102 | 13.5%#51 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#115 | 11.9%#74 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#129 | 16.0%#24 |
| Havoc allowed | 18.5%#137 | 13.9%#87 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.85#136 | 3.88#91 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.63#123 | 2.73#3 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#89 | own 30#75 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#119 | own 29#70 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.0#132 | 64.4#83 |
| Stat | UTEP | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#105 | -0.06#124 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23#137 | +0.05#83 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#100 | -0.04#33 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#127 | -0.12#17 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8%#119 | 38.7%#115 |
| Passing success rate | 31.0%#135 | 41.0%#77 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5%#106 | 22.3%#132 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.0%#133 | 31.4%#67 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.9%#126 | 21.4%#4 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.8%#138 | 43.4%#52 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.4%#131 | 37.3%#52 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.5%#127 | 59.0%#86 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.7%#82 | 48.4%#29 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UTEP schedule · North Dakota State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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