Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Dakota State 29, San José State 15 at CEFCU Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: North Dakota State wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.4 points and 43.6 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
North Dakota State is 6-2 against the 123rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.8 and allowing 12.5 points per game (+15.3 per game). San José State is 4-4 against the 120th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.4 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-2.1 per game).
North Dakota State's middle-of-the-pack offense (72nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over San José State's below-average defense (99th); that mismatch is where most of North Dakota State's projected points come from. Expect San José State to find it hard going: North Dakota State's strong defense (26th) outranks San José State's struggling offense (122nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota State by 37 and San José State by 8 about 80% of the time.
San José State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Dakota State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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North Dakota State vs San José State: stat comparison
| Stat | North Dakota State | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8#77 | 20.4#118 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.5#3 | 22.5#56 |
| Yards per play | 5.80#89 | 5.52#110 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.91#19 | 5.36#52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.8#66 | 140.8#108 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.9#88 | 219.0#76 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 136.4#44 | 164.8#89 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 143.1#5 | 222.8#96 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#89 | 0.88#73 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#11 | 1.13#42 |
| Sacks per game | 1.63#101 | 3.63#4 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#42 | 2.25#97 |
| Stat | North Dakota State | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#118 | -0.04#128 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#18 | +0.02#55 |
| Success rate | 40.6%#101 | 37.1%#130 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.9%#21 | 41.7%#75 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#51 | 11.5%#101 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#74 | 10.9%#47 |
| Havoc rate | 16.0%#24 | 15.1%#42 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#87 | 15.3%#118 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.88#91 | 3.71#101 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.73#3 | 3.19#17 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#75 | own 28#102 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#70 | own 30#100 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.4#83 | 65.1#74 |
| Stat | North Dakota State | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06#124 | -0.08#130 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#83 | +0.00#105 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#33 | +0.03#69 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#17 | +0.00#48 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7%#115 | 34.5%#135 |
| Passing success rate | 41.0%#77 | 40.2%#85 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.3%#132 | 18.8%#96 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#67 | 22.4%#136 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.4%#4 | 28.5%#55 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.4%#52 | 31.2%#133 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.3%#52 | 37.7%#59 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.0%#86 | 54.5%#110 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.4%#29 | 54.9%#44 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Dakota State schedule · San José State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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