Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio 28.8, Jacksonville State 21.5 at Peden Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Ohio wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.3 points and 50.2 combined points.
Jacksonville State is 1-1, scoring 28 and allowing 20 points per game (+8 per game). Ohio is 0-1, scoring 21 and allowing 49 points per game (-28 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Jacksonville State's middle-of-the-pack offense (73rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) against Ohio's below-average defense (96th). Ohio's below-average offense (87th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) meets Jacksonville State's middle-of-the-pack defense (80th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jacksonville State by 15 and Ohio by 30 about 80% of the time.
Ohio gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio by about 5.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Jacksonville State 27, Ohio 29. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.3 points and the total by 5.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Jacksonville State / Ohio) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio -2.25 → Ohio -1.75 | 50 → 49.25 | +105 / -125 |
| Bovada | Ohio -2 | 51.5 → 50 | +105 / -125 |
| DraftKings | Ohio -2.5 → Ohio -1.5 | 48.5 | +105 / -125 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ohio win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio -7.5 | 50.2 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Ohio -2 | 49.3 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Ohio -2.5 | 50.2 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ohio win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio -7.3 · market Ohio -1.75 · difference +5.6 pts (Ohio view)
- Total
- model 50.2 · market 49.25 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 5.6 pts more toward Ohio than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Jacksonville State 21.5, Ohio 28.8 | Ohio 68%right winner | 5.3 | 5.8 |
| New formula | Jacksonville State 25.7, Ohio 29.9 | Ohio 60%right winner | 2.2 | 0.4 |
Final: Jacksonville State 27, Ohio 29. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Jacksonville State vs Ohio: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.1#64 | 27.8#66 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.2#71 | 21.9#42 |
| Yards per play | 5.99#60 | 6.25#36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.04#95 | 6.08#98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 250.1#6 | 232.5#11 |
| Net passing yards per game | 157.1#122 | 184.5#108 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.9#64 | 156.8#60 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.8#102 | 212.1#59 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#20 | 0.92#49 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64#8 | 1.00#75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#79 | 1.77#90 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#46 | 1.92#85 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#73 | +0.08#42 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#56 | 0.00#63 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#67 | 44.4%#48 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8%#73 | 42.0%#75 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#49 | 13.9%#25 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#85 | 13.1%#92 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#25 | 12.4%#73 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#70 | 10.8%#34 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.95#72 | 3.61#109 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.02#88 | 3.55#37 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#79 | own 30#54 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#36 | own 29#51 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#47 | 66.7#59 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#32 | +0.10#27 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#105 | +0.04#65 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#75 | +0.05#100 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#47 | -0.04#45 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7%#37 | 44.7%#56 |
| Passing success rate | 39.0%#96 | 45.1%#32 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#79 | 13.1%#6 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9%#68 | 32.0%#46 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1%#79 | 30.0%#77 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.7%#85 | 43.9%#39 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.6%#56 | 33.1%#12 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.9%#102 | 69.5%#26 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.9%#119 | 52.8%#22 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Jacksonville State schedule · Ohio schedule · all Week 2 projections
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