Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jacksonville State 37.9, Eastern Kentucky 9.8 at AmFirst Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Jacksonville State wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28.1 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Eastern Kentucky is 0-1, scoring 21 and allowing 45 points per game (-24 per game). Jacksonville State is 0-1, scoring 7 and allowing 33 points per game (-26 per game).
Eastern Kentucky plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Jacksonville State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jacksonville State by 6 and Jacksonville State by 51 about 80% of the time.
Jacksonville State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jacksonville State by about 26. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Eastern Kentucky 7, Jacksonville State 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.9 points and the total by 8.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Kentucky / Jacksonville State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Jacksonville State -20.25 → Jacksonville State -22.25 | 53 → 52.25 | +950 / -1850 |
| DraftKings | Jacksonville State -19.5 → Jacksonville State -22.5 | 52.5 → 51.5 | +1100 / -2100 |
| Bovada | Jacksonville State -21 → Jacksonville State -22 | 53.5 → 53 | +800 / -1600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Jacksonville State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Jacksonville State -28 | 47.7 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Jacksonville State -22.5 | 52.3 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Jacksonville State -23.5 | 52.6 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Jacksonville State win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Jacksonville State -28.1 · market Jacksonville State -22.25 · difference +5.9 pts (Jacksonville State view)
- Total
- model 47.7 · market 52.25 · difference -4.5
Model margin is 5.9 pts more toward Jacksonville State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Kentucky 9.8, Jacksonville State 37.9 | Jacksonville State 97%right winner | 13.9 | 8.3 |
| New formula | Eastern Kentucky 14.9, Jacksonville State 36.1 | Jacksonville State 90%right winner | 20.8 | 5.1 |
Final: Eastern Kentucky 7, Jacksonville State 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Kentucky vs Jacksonville State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Eastern Kentucky | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.3 | 28.1#64 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3 | 25.2#71 |
| Yards per play | 4.66 | 5.99#60 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.53 | 6.04#95 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.2 | 250.1#6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 120.3 | 157.1#122 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 184.6 | 159.9#64 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 221.4 | 237.8#102 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.71#20 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 1.64#8 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 1.86#79 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.17 | 1.57#46 |
| Stat | Eastern Kentucky | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.02#73 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | -0.01#56 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 42.5%#67 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2% | 41.8%#73 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3% | 13.1%#49 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 12.9%#85 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2% | 14.2%#25 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 12.0%#70 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 3.95#72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.75 | 4.02#88 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | own 30#79 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | own 28#36 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.0 | 68.0#47 |
| Stat | Eastern Kentucky | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.08#32 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.07#105 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.01#75 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.04#47 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.8% | 46.7%#37 |
| Passing success rate | 36.9% | 39.0%#96 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.9% | 18.7%#79 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5% | 30.9%#68 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.1% | 30.1%#79 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.7% | 39.7%#85 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.7% | 39.6%#56 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.1% | 55.9%#102 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.6% | 68.9%#119 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Kentucky schedule · Jacksonville State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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