Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jacksonville State 32, Sam Houston 15 at AmFirst Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Jacksonville State wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.8 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans low scoring.
Sam Houston is 1-7 against the 118th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18 and allowing 25.1 points per game (-7.1 per game). Jacksonville State is 6-2 against the 119th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.9 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+7 per game).
Jacksonville State's middle-of-the-pack defense (82nd) should limit Sam Houston's struggling offense (137th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 13.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Jacksonville State's below-average offense (95th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) against Sam Houston's struggling defense (123rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sam Houston by 6 and Jacksonville State by 39 about 80% of the time.
Jacksonville State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jacksonville State by about 14.7. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State: stat comparison
| Stat | Sam Houston | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.0#131 | 26.9#81 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.1#78 | 19.9#33 |
| Yards per play | 5.53#109 | 6.67#27 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.31#50 | 5.46#60 |
| Rushing yards per game | 104.7#136 | 154.9#94 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.0#49 | 248.0#46 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 213.0#128 | 162.6#84 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 134.1#2 | 190.3#44 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#66 | 0.86#62 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#98 | 0.86#72 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#100 | 1.57#103 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#111 | 1.00#18 |
| Stat | Sam Houston | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#129 | +0.18#27 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#28 | +0.11#104 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#110 | 47.0%#30 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0%#57 | 41.8%#77 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0%#116 | 13.8%#40 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#85 | 11.5%#68 |
| Havoc rate | 15.4%#35 | 14.7%#61 |
| Havoc allowed | 18.0%#136 | 13.9%#88 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.89#133 | 4.12#68 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.82#71 | 3.48#40 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#101 | own 29#94 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#88 | own 29#62 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.7#101 | 60.4#118 |
| Stat | Sam Houston | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#128 | +0.08#69 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#116 | +0.28#17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#73 | +0.13#118 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.16#8 | +0.08#85 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.4%#130 | 46.6%#46 |
| Passing success rate | 37.9%#110 | 48.7%#22 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.5%#133 | 17.9%#83 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.6%#100 | 35.1%#34 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.8%#48 | 28.5%#53 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.6%#110 | 45.7%#34 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.6%#13 | 47.4%#129 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.3%#122 | 49.5%#121 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.7%#69 | 56.0%#50 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sam Houston schedule · Jacksonville State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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