Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jacksonville State 28, Western Kentucky 23 at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Jacksonville State wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 51 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Jacksonville State is 6-2 against the 111th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.9 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+7 per game). Western Kentucky is 3-5 against the 97th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.3 and allowing 31.1 points per game (-9.8 per game).
Jacksonville State's below-average offense (95th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) meets Western Kentucky's below-average defense (107th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jacksonville State puts up. Jacksonville State's middle-of-the-pack defense (82nd) should limit Western Kentucky's below-average offense (115th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jacksonville State by 27 and Western Kentucky by 18 about 80% of the time.
Western Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Jacksonville State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky: stat comparison
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.9#81 | 21.3#114 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.9#33 | 31.1#119 |
| Yards per play | 6.67#27 | 5.19#126 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46#60 | 6.11#103 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.9#94 | 148.9#99 |
| Net passing yards per game | 248.0#46 | 221.1#74 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 162.6#84 | 189.3#112 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.3#44 | 185.1#36 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#62 | 0.86#69 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#72 | 0.57#120 |
| Sacks per game | 1.57#103 | 1.29#119 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#18 | 2.14#96 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#27 | -0.01#119 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#104 | -0.01#38 |
| Success rate | 47.0%#30 | 38.4%#124 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8%#77 | 39.2%#41 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#40 | 10.8%#120 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#68 | 12.5%#87 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#61 | 13.1%#93 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#88 | 14.1%#98 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.12#68 | 3.62#105 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.48#40 | 4.11#102 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#94 | own 28#111 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#62 | own 31#104 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.4#118 | 71.3#12 |
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#69 | -0.08#129 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#17 | +0.05#85 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#118 | +0.04#76 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#85 | -0.07#31 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6%#46 | 38.3%#118 |
| Passing success rate | 48.7%#22 | 34.4%#128 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9%#83 | 19.8%#112 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.1%#34 | 30.6%#78 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5%#53 | 29.0%#63 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7%#34 | 44.5%#38 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.4%#129 | 34.1%#28 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.5%#121 | 58.1%#92 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.0%#50 | 67.1%#107 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Jacksonville State schedule · Western Kentucky schedule · all Week 11 projections
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