Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected James Madison 36.1, Georgia State 23.1 at Bridgeforth Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: James Madison wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13 points and 59.2 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Georgia State is 4-1, scoring 39.4 and allowing 19 points per game (+20.4 per game). James Madison is 6-0, scoring 41.8 and allowing 15 points per game (+26.8 per game).
James Madison's middle-of-the-pack defense (45th) should limit Georgia State's middle-of-the-pack offense (68th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: James Madison's strong offense (37th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.7 points against an average defense) against Georgia State's below-average defense (103rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia State by 10 and James Madison by 36 about 80% of the time.
James Madison gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour James Madison by about 10.9. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Georgia State 22, James Madison 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14 points and the total by 11.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia State / James Madison) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | James Madison -12.25 → James Madison -7.75 | 56.25 → 57.5 | +320 / -427.5 |
| DraftKings | James Madison -12.5 → James Madison -7.5 | 54.5 → 57.5 | +280 / -355 |
| Bovada | James Madison -12 → James Madison -8 | 58 → 57.5 | +360 / -500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | James Madison win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | James Madison -13 | 59.2 | 80% |
| Market consensus | James Madison -8 | 57.5 | 77% |
| Blended projection | James Madison -8.5 | 57.8 | 72% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- James Madison win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model James Madison -13 · market James Madison -7.75 · difference +5.3 pts (James Madison view)
- Total
- model 59.2 · market 57.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 5.3 pts more toward James Madison than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgia State 23.1, James Madison 36.1 | James Madison 80%right winner | 14.0 | 11.8 |
| New formula | Georgia State 24.1, James Madison 35.5 | James Madison 77%right winner | 15.5 | 11.4 |
Final: Georgia State 22, James Madison 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgia State vs James Madison: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Georgia State | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.4#17 | 41.8#10 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.0#35 | 15.0#16 |
| Yards per play | 6.92#19 | 6.82#25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.00#30 | 5.00#31 |
| Rushing yards per game | 206.0#36 | 230.0#20 |
| Net passing yards per game | 271.6#26 | 226.8#70 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.4#53 | 118.5#28 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 156.8#17 | 231.8#104 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#109 | 0.17#5 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60#110 | 1.33#28 |
| Sacks per game | 3.80#2 | 2.67#26 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.40#6 | 1.33#47 |
| Stat | Georgia State | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#28 | +0.18#31 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#75 | -0.01#42 |
| Success rate | 46.5%#42 | 46.4%#44 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.7%#43 | 37.1%#27 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.8%#8 | 13.6%#54 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#121 | 10.7%#40 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#36 | 14.7%#54 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.7%#38 | 10.1%#15 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.54#42 | 4.55#41 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.28#24 | 2.99#10 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#37 | own 34#9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#99 | own 27#43 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#37 | 67.0#52 |
| Stat | Georgia State | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#59 | +0.17#27 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.31#18 | +0.20#35 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#116 | -0.05#32 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#48 | +0.03#62 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.6%#82 | 46.5%#52 |
| Passing success rate | 51.9%#15 | 44.9%#47 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6%#80 | 15.0%#37 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.7%#13 | 37.5%#22 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.7%#30 | 29.1%#67 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.7%#17 | 42.1%#67 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.1%#6 | 39.6%#89 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.9%#66 | 70.2%#32 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.9%#13 | 48.7%#28 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia State schedule · James Madison schedule · all Week 7 projections
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