Matchup analysis
Our model projects James Madison 36, Troy 18 at Bridgeforth Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: James Madison wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.4 points and 54.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Troy is 3-4 against the 113th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 24.9 points per game (-2 per game). James Madison is 7-1 against the 128th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.4 and allowing 18.3 points per game (+23.1 per game).
Expect Troy to find it hard going: James Madison's middle-of-the-pack defense (53rd) outranks Troy's below-average offense (111th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.9 points against an average defense). James Madison's strong offense (32nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Troy's below-average defense (98th); that mismatch is where most of James Madison's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Troy by 4 and James Madison by 41 about 80% of the time.
James Madison gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour James Madison by about 16.3. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Troy / James Madison) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | James Madison -20.75 | 49.5 | +900 / -1800 |
| FanDuel | James Madison -20.5 | 49.5 | +980 / -2000 |
| DraftKings | James Madison -21 | 49.5 | +900 / -1600 |
| BetRivers | James Madison -21 | 49.5 | +900 / -2000 |
| theScore Bet | James Madison -20.5 | 49.5 | +1100 / -2500 |
| BetMGM | James Madison -20.5 | 49.5 | +950 / -1400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | James Madison -20.5 | 49.5 | +900 / -2000 |
| Pinnacle | James Madison -21 | 50 | +808 / -1383 |
| Bovada | James Madison -21 | 50 | +775 / -1500 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | James Madison win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | James Madison -18.5 | 54.3 | 89% |
| Market consensus | James Madison -21 | 49.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | James Madison -20.5 | 50.6 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- James Madison win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model James Madison -18.4 · market James Madison -20.75 · difference -2.4 pts (James Madison view)
- Total
- model 54.3 · market 49.5 · difference +4.8
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies James Madison 91%.
Model margin is 2.4 pts more toward Troy than the market.
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Troy vs James Madison: stat comparison
| Stat | Troy | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.9#105 | 41.4#5 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9#76 | 18.3#25 |
| Yards per play | 5.75#92 | 6.72#22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.23#40 | 5.03#27 |
| Rushing yards per game | 213.3#24 | 213.3#23 |
| Net passing yards per game | 183.4#113 | 243.8#48 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.6#50 | 123.5#25 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.9#33 | 228.8#102 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#63 | 0.25#7 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#36 | 1.13#41 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#98 | 2.75#17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#93 | 1.00#20 |
| Stat | Troy | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#91 | +0.18#28 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#64 | -0.01#39 |
| Success rate | 41.4%#93 | 45.2%#45 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#80 | 37.6%#31 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#95 | 13.9%#36 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#81 | 10.2%#26 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6%#77 | 15.3%#36 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.1%#111 | 9.4%#6 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.48#113 | 4.59#32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.79#65 | 3.21#21 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#129 | own 35#2 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#115 | own 27#27 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#38 | 68.0#47 |
| Stat | Troy | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#40 | +0.13#36 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#120 | +0.23#26 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#44 | -0.03#39 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#80 | +0.00#47 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8%#74 | 45.3%#57 |
| Passing success rate | 35.1%#124 | 44.7%#48 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.9%#32 | 14.2%#21 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1%#102 | 37.9%#17 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.0%#36 | 28.5%#54 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.0%#120 | 38.8%#91 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#23 | 39.4%#79 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.1%#58 | 76.9%#7 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.7%#68 | 47.7%#26 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Troy schedule · James Madison schedule · all Week 9 projections
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