Matchup analysis
Our model projects Liberty 33, Missouri State 18 at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Liberty wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.5 points and 51.3 combined points.
Liberty is 6-1 against the 134th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 14 points per game (+17.6 per game). Missouri State is 3-5 against the 108th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 30.9 points per game (-6.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Liberty's middle-of-the-pack offense (75th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Missouri State's struggling defense (128th). Liberty's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th) should limit Missouri State's below-average offense (116th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Liberty by 37 and Missouri State by 8 about 80% of the time.
Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Liberty is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Liberty vs Missouri State: stat comparison
| Stat | Liberty | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6#52 | 24.4#98 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.0#7 | 30.9#118 |
| Yards per play | 6.62#29 | 5.97#73 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.03#28 | 6.29#115 |
| Rushing yards per game | 233.1#11 | 142.7#107 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.3#114 | 232.4#61 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.9#35 | 185.1#106 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.4#23 | 262.4#129 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.14#3 | 1.14#114 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#26 | 0.71#100 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#77 | 1.29#118 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#76 | 1.86#78 |
| Stat | Liberty | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#37 | +0.07#81 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.09#13 | +0.12#112 |
| Success rate | 47.5%#27 | 42.8%#70 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.6%#19 | 44.5%#114 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.2%#21 | 12.3%#78 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#76 | 12.5%#86 |
| Havoc rate | 15.6%#30 | 13.6%#78 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#37 | 13.1%#65 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.15#63 | 3.99#81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.04#9 | 4.23#106 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#9 | own 27#130 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#7 | own 35#138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.7#102 | 62.9#99 |
| Stat | Liberty | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#16 | +0.09#62 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#51 | +0.04#88 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#30 | +0.06#83 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13#15 | +0.19#115 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.5%#4 | 48.5%#26 |
| Passing success rate | 40.5%#84 | 37.9%#111 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.4%#16 | 18.3%#89 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.4%#53 | 30.4%#82 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.6%#33 | 31.0%#91 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7%#60 | 36.7%#101 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#25 | 44.0%#117 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.7%#88 | 47.8%#126 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.6%#2 | 61.6%#81 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Liberty schedule · Missouri State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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