Matchup analysis
Our model projects Liberty 36, Middle Tennessee 14 at Williams Stadium (VA) in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Liberty wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 22.3 points and 49.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Middle Tennessee is 4-4 against the 125th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-5.7 per game). Liberty is 6-1 against the 127th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 14 points per game (+17.6 per game).
Expect Middle Tennessee to find it hard going: Liberty's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th) outranks Middle Tennessee's struggling offense (124th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.4 points against an average defense). Liberty's middle-of-the-pack offense (75th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Middle Tennessee's struggling defense (131st); that mismatch is where most of Liberty's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and Liberty by 45 about 80% of the time.
Liberty gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Liberty by about 20.2. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Middle Tennessee vs Liberty: stat comparison
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.9#100 | 31.6#52 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.6#108 | 14.0#7 |
| Yards per play | 6.00#67 | 6.62#29 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.59#127 | 5.03#28 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.6#109 | 233.1#11 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.9#85 | 182.3#114 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 204.1#126 | 129.9#35 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 208.3#74 | 176.4#23 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.29#10 | 0.14#3 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#55 | 1.29#26 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#124 | 2.00#77 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#17 | 1.86#76 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#88 | +0.16#37 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#93 | -0.09#13 |
| Success rate | 41.5%#91 | 47.5%#27 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3%#107 | 35.6%#19 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#72 | 15.2%#21 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#95 | 11.9%#76 |
| Havoc rate | 10.8%#131 | 15.6%#30 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#67 | 11.9%#37 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79#94 | 4.15#63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.31#109 | 3.04#9 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#109 | own 34#9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#47 | own 25#7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.9#133 | 62.7#102 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#106 | +0.18#16 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#74 | +0.14#51 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#117 | -0.05#30 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#62 | -0.13#15 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.6%#95 | 52.5%#4 |
| Passing success rate | 40.7%#81 | 40.5%#84 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.3%#104 | 13.4%#16 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.3%#69 | 32.4%#53 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7%#80 | 26.6%#33 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 27.8%#137 | 42.7%#60 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%#86 | 33.3%#25 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.2%#79 | 58.7%#88 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.9%#92 | 33.6%#2 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Middle Tennessee schedule · Liberty schedule · all Week 11 projections
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