Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Coastal Carolina 25.7, Liberty 21.5 at Brooks Stadium (SC) in Week 4. That is a lean: Coastal Carolina wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 47.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Liberty is 2-1, scoring 29.3 and allowing 19.3 points per game (+10 per game). Coastal Carolina is 1-2, scoring 27.7 and allowing 20 points per game (+7.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Liberty's middle-of-the-pack offense (78th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (117th). Liberty's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th) should limit Coastal Carolina's below-average offense (115th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Liberty by 18 and Coastal Carolina by 27 about 80% of the time.
Coastal Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Coastal Carolina by about 2.1. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Liberty 34, Coastal Carolina 17. Liberty won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.2 points).
More: Liberty schedule · Coastal Carolina schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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