Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Liberty 33, Delaware 22 at Delaware Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Liberty wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.8 points and 54.7 combined points.
Liberty is 3-1, scoring 30.5 and allowing 18.8 points per game (+11.7 per game). Delaware is 2-2, scoring 23.3 and allowing 24.5 points per game (-1.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Liberty's below-average offense (86th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense) against Delaware's below-average defense (113th). Liberty's middle-of-the-pack defense (73rd) should limit Delaware's below-average offense (101st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Liberty by 33 and Delaware by 12 about 80% of the time.
Delaware gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Liberty is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Liberty 30, Delaware 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.2 points and the total by 10.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Liberty / Delaware) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Liberty -7 | 50.25 → 51.5 | -276.5 / +225 |
| Bovada | Liberty -7 | 50 → 51.5 | -275 / +225 |
| DraftKings | Liberty -7 | 50.5 → 51.5 | -278 / +225 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Delaware win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Liberty -11 | 54.7 | 24% |
| Market consensus | Liberty -7 | 51.5 | 30% |
| Blended projection | Liberty -7.5 | 52.4 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Delaware win probability
- model 24% · market (no-vig) 30% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Liberty -10.8 · market Liberty -7 · difference -3.8 pts (Delaware view)
- Total
- model 54.7 · market 51.5 · difference +3.2
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Liberty than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Liberty 28.8, Delaware 24.8 | Liberty 60%right winner | 12.0 | 9.6 |
| New formula | Liberty 28.7, Delaware 24.6 | Liberty 61%right winner | 11.9 | 9.3 |
Final: Liberty 30, Delaware 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Liberty vs Delaware: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Liberty | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.5#73 | 23.3#102 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8#39 | 24.5#82 |
| Yards per play | 6.52#55 | 5.64#106 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.08#45 | 5.55#74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 204.8#38 | 121.3#125 |
| Net passing yards per game | 207.8#91 | 238.0#61 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.8#84 | 122.3#36 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 147.8#12 | 266.3#129 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#27 | 1.25#104 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#26 | 0.50#117 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#58 | 3.50#8 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#114 | 3.00#127 |
| Stat | Liberty | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#29 | +0.10#69 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#21 | +0.09#95 |
| Success rate | 45.7%#45 | 42.3%#81 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.0%#7 | 41.8%#83 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.6%#36 | 12.6%#80 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#68 | 10.7%#55 |
| Havoc rate | 17.4%#12 | 15.8%#38 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#72 | 16.5%#127 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.92#89 | 4.18#69 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.59#57 | 3.39#39 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#40 | own 30#72 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#69 | own 28#54 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3#94 | 63.8#87 |
| Stat | Liberty | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#37 | +0.10#64 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.26#34 | +0.10#69 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#53 | +0.02#70 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#15 | +0.15#100 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.9%#49 | 43.8%#78 |
| Passing success rate | 44.0%#64 | 41.0%#85 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.5%#7 | 18.0%#87 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.6%#22 | 25.8%#115 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.1%#54 | 28.0%#59 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.0%#44 | 34.0%#115 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.0%#42 | 37.3%#68 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.3%#96 | 66.1%#68 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 44.4%#23 | 68.4%#105 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Liberty schedule · Delaware schedule · all Week 5 projections
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