Matchup analysis
Our model projects Liberty 30, New Mexico State 16 at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Liberty wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.5 points and 45.5 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Liberty is 6-1 against the 134th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 14 points per game (+17.6 per game). New Mexico State is 3-5 against the 114th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.5 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-3.8 per game).
Liberty's middle-of-the-pack offense (75th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over New Mexico State's below-average defense (110th); that mismatch is where most of Liberty's projected points come from. Expect New Mexico State to find it hard going: Liberty's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th) outranks New Mexico State's struggling offense (125th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Liberty by 36 and New Mexico State by 9 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Liberty is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPNU.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Liberty vs New Mexico State: stat comparison
| Stat | Liberty | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6#52 | 21.5#111 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.0#7 | 25.3#82 |
| Yards per play | 6.62#29 | 5.98#71 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.03#28 | 5.42#56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 233.1#11 | 162.7#79 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.3#114 | 221.1#73 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.9#35 | 130.9#38 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.4#23 | 218.3#93 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.14#3 | 1.43#131 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#26 | 0.86#74 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#77 | 2.43#43 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#76 | 1.57#55 |
| Stat | Liberty | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#37 | +0.05#92 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.09#13 | +0.03#62 |
| Success rate | 47.5%#27 | 41.7%#89 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.6%#19 | 39.1%#40 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.2%#21 | 12.6%#69 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#76 | 11.8%#71 |
| Havoc rate | 15.6%#30 | 14.6%#62 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#37 | 14.4%#102 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.15#63 | 3.61#106 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.04#9 | 4.00#89 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#9 | own 28#105 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#7 | own 33#134 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.7#102 | 64.1#86 |
| Stat | Liberty | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#16 | +0.08#67 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#51 | -0.01#109 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#30 | +0.01#58 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13#15 | +0.03#63 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.5%#4 | 43.4%#80 |
| Passing success rate | 40.5%#84 | 36.8%#116 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.4%#16 | 14.8%#30 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.4%#53 | 32.6%#48 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.6%#33 | 28.6%#58 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7%#60 | 38.9%#90 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#25 | 39.8%#84 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.7%#88 | 55.0%#107 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.6%#2 | 59.1%#72 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Liberty schedule · New Mexico State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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