Matchup analysis
Our model projects Liberty 32, Western Kentucky 16 at Williams Stadium (VA) in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Liberty wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.6 points and 48.1 combined points.
Western Kentucky is 3-5 against the 97th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.3 and allowing 31.1 points per game (-9.8 per game). Liberty is 6-1 against the 127th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 14 points per game (+17.6 per game).
Liberty's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th) should limit Western Kentucky's below-average offense (115th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Liberty's middle-of-the-pack offense (75th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Western Kentucky's below-average defense (107th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Kentucky by 7 and Liberty by 38 about 80% of the time.
Liberty gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Liberty by about 13.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Western Kentucky vs Liberty: stat comparison
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.3#114 | 31.6#52 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.1#119 | 14.0#7 |
| Yards per play | 5.19#126 | 6.62#29 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.11#103 | 5.03#28 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.9#99 | 233.1#11 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.1#74 | 182.3#114 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 189.3#112 | 129.9#35 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.1#36 | 176.4#23 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#69 | 0.14#3 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#120 | 1.29#26 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#119 | 2.00#77 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#96 | 1.86#76 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#119 | +0.16#37 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#38 | -0.09#13 |
| Success rate | 38.4%#124 | 47.5%#27 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2%#41 | 35.6%#19 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8%#120 | 15.2%#21 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#87 | 11.9%#76 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#93 | 15.6%#30 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#98 | 11.9%#37 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.62#105 | 4.15#63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.11#102 | 3.04#9 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#111 | own 34#9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#104 | own 25#7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.3#12 | 62.7#102 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08#129 | +0.18#16 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#85 | +0.14#51 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#76 | -0.05#30 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07#31 | -0.13#15 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.3%#118 | 52.5%#4 |
| Passing success rate | 34.4%#128 | 40.5%#84 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8%#112 | 13.4%#16 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6%#78 | 32.4%#53 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0%#63 | 26.6%#33 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.5%#38 | 42.7%#60 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.1%#28 | 33.3%#25 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.1%#92 | 58.7%#88 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.1%#107 | 33.6%#2 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Kentucky schedule · Liberty schedule · all Week 12 projections
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