Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Gardner-Webb 35.4, Eastern Illinois 18.3 at Ernest W. Spangler Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Gardner-Webb wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.1 points and 53.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Eastern Illinois is 1-4, scoring 18 and allowing 41.2 points per game (-23.2 per game). Gardner-Webb is 2-4, scoring 24 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+0.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Illinois by 5 and Gardner-Webb by 40 about 80% of the time.
Gardner-Webb gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Gardner-Webb by about 15. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Eastern Illinois 21, Gardner-Webb 7. Eastern Illinois won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 31.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Illinois / Gardner-Webb) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Gardner-Webb -13.5 → Gardner-Webb -12.5 | 51.5 → 47.5 | +372 / -529 |
| DraftKings | Gardner-Webb -13.5 → Gardner-Webb -12.5 | 51.5 → 47.5 | +372 / -529 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Gardner-Webb win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Gardner-Webb -17 | 53.6 | 87% |
| Market consensus | Gardner-Webb -12.5 | 47.5 | 80% |
| Blended projection | Gardner-Webb -13.5 | 48.8 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Gardner-Webb win probability
- model 87% · market (no-vig) 80% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Gardner-Webb -17.1 · market Gardner-Webb -12.5 · difference +4.6 pts (Gardner-Webb view)
- Total
- model 53.6 · market 47.5 · difference +6.1
Model margin is 4.6 pts more toward Gardner-Webb than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Illinois 18.3, Gardner-Webb 35.4 | Gardner-Webb 87%wrong winner | 31.1 | 25.6 |
| New formula | Eastern Illinois 17.9, Gardner-Webb 35.5 | Gardner-Webb 88%wrong winner | 31.5 | 25.4 |
Final: Eastern Illinois 21, Gardner-Webb 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Illinois vs Gardner-Webb: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Gardner-Webb |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.5 | 27.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.2 | 29.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.13 | 6.05 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14 | 6.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.9 | 192.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 166.3 | 224.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.8 | 180.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.8 | 216.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.36 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.09 | 2.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.82 | 2.50 |
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Gardner-Webb |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 38.3% | 38.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.4% | 43.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 14.4% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 14.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.5% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38 | 3.70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.81 | 4.38 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0 | 68.9 |
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Gardner-Webb |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.21 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3% | 38.4% |
| Passing success rate | 36.1% | 41.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.5% | 19.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 28.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4% | 31.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8% | 39.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.6% | 66.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.7% | 60.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Illinois schedule · Gardner-Webb schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.