Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wofford 27, Gardner-Webb 21.8 at Gibbs Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Wofford wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.2 points and 48.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Gardner-Webb is 0-1, scoring 17 and allowing 35 points per game (-18 per game). Wofford is 1-0, scoring 42 and allowing 14 points per game (+28 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Gardner-Webb by 17 and Wofford by 28 about 80% of the time.
Wofford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wofford by about 3.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Gardner-Webb 13, Wofford 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.2 points and the total by 18.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Gardner-Webb / Wofford) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wofford -7 → Wofford -8.5 | 47.5 → 50.5 | +230 / -300 |
| DraftKings | Wofford -7 → Wofford -8.5 | 47.5 → 50.5 | +230 / -300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wofford win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wofford -5 | 48.8 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Wofford -8.5 | 50.5 | 71% |
| Blended projection | Wofford -8 | 51.2 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wofford win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 71% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Wofford -5.2 · market Wofford -8.5 · difference -3.3 pts (Wofford view)
- Total
- model 48.8 · market 50.5 · difference -1.7
Model margin is 3.3 pts more toward Gardner-Webb than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Gardner-Webb 21.8, Wofford 27.0 | Wofford 63%right winner | 1.2 | 18.8 |
| New formula | Gardner-Webb 18.1, Wofford 32.3 | Wofford 80%right winner | 10.2 | 20.4 |
Final: Gardner-Webb 13, Wofford 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Gardner-Webb vs Wofford: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Wofford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.5 | 22.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 17.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.05 | 5.11 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14 | 5.33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.5 | 139.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.6 | 168.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.7 | 134.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.7 | 265.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 0.73 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.64 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67 | 2.09 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50 | 2.64 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Wofford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 38.9% | 35.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 40.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 11.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 12.2% |
| Havoc rate | 14.3% | 16.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 13.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.38 | 3.95 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 60.3 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Wofford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.21 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.4% | 38.2% |
| Passing success rate | 41.3% | 32.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5% | 19.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 29.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.8% | 33.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8% | 38.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.9% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.3% | 55.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Gardner-Webb schedule · Wofford schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.