Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Gardner-Webb 24.2, Charleston Southern 23.1 at Buccaneer Field in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Gardner-Webb wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 47.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Gardner-Webb is 1-4, scoring 26.4 and allowing 26.4 points per game (+0 per game). Charleston Southern is 2-2, scoring 27 and allowing 17.8 points per game (+9.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Gardner-Webb by 24 and Charleston Southern by 21 about 80% of the time.
Charleston Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Gardner-Webb is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Gardner-Webb 12, Charleston Southern 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.9 points and the total by 25.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Gardner-Webb / Charleston Southern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Gardner-Webb -7.5 → Gardner-Webb -7 | 48.5 → 44.5 | -285 / +219 |
| DraftKings | Gardner-Webb -7.5 → Gardner-Webb -7 | 48.5 → 44.5 | -285 / +219 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Charleston Southern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Gardner-Webb -1 | 47.2 | 47% |
| Market consensus | Gardner-Webb -7 | 44.5 | 30% |
| Blended projection | Gardner-Webb -6 | 45.9 | 34% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Charleston Southern win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 30% · difference +17 pts
- Margin
- model Gardner-Webb -1.1 · market Gardner-Webb -7 · difference +5.9 pts (Charleston Southern view)
- Total
- model 47.2 · market 44.5 · difference +2.7
Model margin is 5.9 pts more toward Charleston Southern than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Gardner-Webb 24.2, Charleston Southern 23.1 | Gardner-Webb 53%right winner | 0.9 | 25.2 |
| New formula | Gardner-Webb 24.7, Charleston Southern 23.2 | Gardner-Webb 54%right winner | 0.5 | 25.8 |
Final: Gardner-Webb 12, Charleston Southern 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Gardner-Webb vs Charleston Southern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Charleston Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.5 | 16.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 24.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.05 | 5.44 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14 | 5.98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.5 | 130.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.6 | 179.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.7 | 181.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.7 | 229.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50 | 2.17 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Charleston Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 38.9% | 35.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 45.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 12.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 14.2% |
| Havoc rate | 14.3% | 11.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 14.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 2.89 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.38 | 3.13 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 57.2 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Charleston Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.4% | 33.7% |
| Passing success rate | 41.3% | 37.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1% | 25.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 33.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.8% | 33.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8% | 46.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.9% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.3% | 45.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Gardner-Webb schedule · Charleston Southern schedule · all Week 5 projections
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