Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Austin Peay 35.4, Gardner-Webb 27.1 at Fortera Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Austin Peay wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.3 points and 62.5 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Gardner-Webb has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Austin Peay has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Gardner-Webb by 14 and Austin Peay by 31 about 80% of the time.
Austin Peay gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Austin Peay by about 6.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Gardner-Webb 17, Austin Peay 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.7 points and the total by 10.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Gardner-Webb / Austin Peay) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Austin Peay -14.5 | 59.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Austin Peay -14.5 | 59.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Austin Peay win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Austin Peay -8.5 | 62.5 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Austin Peay -14.5 | 59.5 | 84% |
| Blended projection | Austin Peay -13.5 | 59.7 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Austin Peay win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Austin Peay -8.3 · market Austin Peay -14.5 · difference -6.2 pts (Austin Peay view)
- Total
- model 62.5 · market 59.5 · difference +3.0
Model margin is 6.2 pts more toward Gardner-Webb than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Gardner-Webb 27.1, Austin Peay 35.4 | Austin Peay 71%right winner | 9.7 | 10.5 |
| New formula | Gardner-Webb 21.3, Austin Peay 38.4 | Austin Peay 84%right winner | 0.9 | 7.7 |
Final: Gardner-Webb 17, Austin Peay 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Gardner-Webb vs Austin Peay: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.5 | 35.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 27.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.05 | 6.90 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14 | 5.58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.5 | 195.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.6 | 260.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.7 | 142.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.7 | 234.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50 | 1.58 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 38.9% | 45.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 42.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 14.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 11.3% |
| Havoc rate | 14.3% | 12.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 10.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 3.77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.38 | 3.74 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 66.2 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.4% | 45.1% |
| Passing success rate | 41.3% | 46.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5% | 17.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1% | 38.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 28.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.8% | 46.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8% | 38.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.9% | 57.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.3% | 62.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Gardner-Webb schedule · Austin Peay schedule · all Week 1 projections
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